Academic

*REALLY* DON?T GET COCKY: Trump is losing. Badly. That?s what the recent polls shows. That doesn?t m?

By David Bernstein

*REALLY* DON’T GET COCKY: Trump is losing. Badly. That’s what the recent polls shows. That doesn’t mean he will lose. There’s almost a month left, and if he can turn around 2.5% of current Biden voters, and thus get within around 4% of Biden, plus pick up a few “shy Trump” voters, he can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by several points. But right now he’s losing, and it’s not because the polls are biased, not because of any conspiracy by the media to cover up his success. He’s basically getting the vote of every voter who approves of his job performance, and no one else. He’s more popular than he was in 2016, but Biden is much more popular than Clinton was. Worse yet, a lot of people think the race is much closer than it is right now, and are sending in early ballots voting for Democratic Senate candidates to “check” Trump. I’m telling it like it is, and I’m sorry that’s bad news for most Instapundit readers. And note that I am totally not averse to calling things for Trump against the media consensus when I see things going his way.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Really, don’t get cocky. You should be donating and working on this election, and putting out the max effort, because everything is up for grabs. And encourage your friends to turn out and vote too.

ANOTHER UPDATE (FROM GLENN): A Facebook friend sends this:

Someone asked me what feedback I am getting with door knocking in Bristol/Levittown PA. I’ve been doing this 3 days/wk, for 3 wkends. Working class to upper middle neighborhoods, all registered voters, all ages, roughly equal by party.

1) if it’s Biden they usually say Biden, occasionally apologetically.
2) if they say I’m undecided but don’t close the door, if you ask what are your issues or how will you decide, they say Trump or give you clues it’ll be Trump (ex: “I’m pro life.”)
3) I always ask if anything in the debates changed their mind – so far always no, they already were going to vote for that person.
4) So far no mind changes at all, or they didn’t say.
5) sometimes they refuse to say, period, and close the door.
6) if Trump – they are going to vote in person.
7) if anti Trump – why? 2-3/day – emotional negative reaction to him (“he’s disgusting”) or media memes (“wants to be a dictator”)
8) I always get maybe 1 in 25 who are vociferously Democrat or pro-Biden and let me have it.
9) but most aren’t home or don’t answer the door.

10) this weekend I want to ask if Trump’s covid diagnosis and choices around that changed their minds.

Interesting.

Full post as published by Instapundit.com on October 08, 2020 (boomark / email).