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The one element that's in place is "A united, enthusiastic and engaged GOP base."

The other 3 are: "A deeply flawed opponent,"  "Decent support among independent voters," and "Third-party candidates siphoning off enough votes to allow Trump to win key states."

Walter says, "Joe Biden has never been popular, but he?s also never been as unpopular as Hillary Clinton." I'd say that Biden is more like the absence of a candidate, putting the focus on Trump's flaws. And with the virus making everything bad, the badness falls more heavily, more directly on Trump. He's presiding over what's actually happening, and one can only imagine how Biden might have handled things. 

As for independents, we're told Trump trails Biden by 14 to 18 points in "the most recent national polling by Fox News, CNN and Pew." 

As for third party candidates, they're less important than in 2016.

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