Academic

COLD WAR II: Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity. "Just how many nuclear submarin

COLD WAR II: Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity. “Just how many nuclear submarines China will build over the next ten years is a hot topic. The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) recently forecast China's submarine fleet to grow by six nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2030. Other observers, such as retired Capt. James Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet, place their estimates even higher. What seems clear is that the number of nuclear submarines will increase.”

One of the few bright spots in the US Navy’s procurement effort is the Virginia-class nuclear attack subs. They’re great hunter-killer boats, and they’re being commissioned at a rate of almost two per year, and they haven’t blown through cost estimates.

But:

The Navy's force-level goal for SSNs is to achieve and maintain a force of 66 boats. The Navy's SSN force included 50 boats at the end of FY2019. From the mid-2020s through the early 2030s, the number of SSNs is projected to experience a valley or trough, reaching a minimum of 42 boats in FY2027-FY2028. Some observers are concerned that this projected valley could lead to a period of heightened operational strain for the SSN force, and perhaps a period of weakened conventional deterrence against potential adversaries such as China. The projected SSN valley was first identified by CRS in 1995 and has been discussed in CRS reports and testimony every year since then. The Navy's FY2020 30-year shipbuilding plan projects that, after reaching its projected 42-boat minimum, the SSN force will increase to 66 boats by FY2048.

2048 is a long way off.

Full post as published by Instapundit.com on October 14, 2020 (boomark / email).