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NC: An Obama Win May Gain Him Few Delegates

By Jeralyn

Update: The new SUSA poll out today confirms that delegate-wise, North Carolina is pretty meaningless:

There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more convention delegates than the other.

Therefore, the exact final vote totals have much more symbolic importance than real importance.

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Congressional Quarterly (CQ Politics) says even if Obama wins North Carolina, he is likely only to gain 3 more delegates than Hillary at the District level. Of North Carolina's 134 delegates to the national convention, 77 are district delegates.

Despite Obama's eight-point advantage in recent North Carolina polls, CQ Politics forecasts a gain of only three district-level delegates in tomorrow's primary.

More...

Based on an extensive analysis of the 13 congressional districts in North Carolina, CQ Politics projects that—out of the pool of district-level delegates that are up for grabs on May 6th—Obama will take home 40 delegates to Clinton's 37. In all, North Carolina will send 134 Democratic delegates to the national convention.

This is because North Carolina has an intricate way of computing district delegates.

Each of the state’s 13 districts is apportioned up to nine district-level delegates according to an intricate formula that takes into account each district’s vote for president and the vote for Democratic Gov. Michael F. Easley in the 2004 election.

CQ gives the breakdown by district. I'm just posting the Districts here as a reference point for following tomorrow night's returns, and bolding the ones they say have demographics most favorable to Hillary:

• 1st District (Northeast — parts of Goldsboro, Rocky Mount and Greenville).
• 2nd District (Central — parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville).
• 3rd District (East — Jacksonville, part of Greenville, Outer Banks).
• 4th District (Central — Durham, Chapel Hill, part of Raleigh).
• 5th District (Northwest — part of Winston-Salem).

The 5th District is the most rural in North Carolina. The largest R.J. Reynolds Tobacco plant is in the district in the town of Tobaccoville but much of the focus on tobacco production has turned other directions. Some tobacco farmers have converted their property to vineyards and wineries, and the Wake Forest University’s medical center has made health care a top industry in the district. Democrats have five district delegates in the 5th which means whichever candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote gets three delegates. Only 7 percent of the population in the district is black, and the sizable rural white population gives the advantage to Clinton. CQ Politics Prediction: Clinton 3, Obama 2.

• 6th District (Central — parts of Greensboro and High Point).
• 7th District (Southeast — Wilmington, part of Fayettevi
• 8th District (South central — parts of Charlotte, Fayetteville, Concord and Kannapolis
• 9th District (South Central — parts of Charlotte and Gastonia).
• 10th District (West — Hickory)
• 11th District (West — Asheville).
• 12th District (Central — parts of Charlotte, Winston-Salem and Greensboro
• 13th District (North central — parts of Raleigh and Greensboro).

As for Hillary superdelegates,

In addition to the 77 district-level delegates, 26 at-large delegates will be allocated to Clinton and Obama according to what percentage of the vote they receive statewide in the primary.

North Carolina also has 19 superdelegates. Three of the state’s seven Democratic House members have made endorsements in the race — all for Obama. However, Clinton achieved a major coup when the state’s popular Democratic Gov. Michael F. Easley endorsed her April 29. Both of North Carolina’s senators are Republicans.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 05, 2008 (boomark / email).