Legal Commentary

The Math vs. The Problem

By Big Tent Democrat

Another election night proves what I have written too many times to count - demography is political destiny. As Jeralyn's post below demonstrates, Donna Brazile and many Obama supporters (see Chris Bowers for instance) think Democrats can win in November without white working class voters. I believe they are wrong.

Barack Obama's "big night" was not fueled by solving this electability problem. He lost whites in North Carolina by 61-37. He lost whites in Indiana by 60-40. He won African Americans 91-7 in North Carolina. He won African Americans in Indiana by 92-8.

Obama won North Carolina because African Americans were 33% of the vote. Obama kept it close in Indiana because African Americans were 15% of the vote. In terms of the electability problems Obama is facing, nothing changed tonight. And West Virginia next week will confirm that. More . . .

The math favors Obama and tonight made the math favor him even more. The math is clear. Obama leads in the pledged delegates and he gained 150,000 votes in the popular vote. (I will note that Chuck Todd predicted that Clinton's gains in Pennsylvania would be wiped out tonight and that seems unlikely.)

What is not clear is that Barack Obama can win white working class voters. And to pretend this is not a problem is to play ostrich. I will not do that. In the state next door, Obama could not carry more than 40% of the white vote. He will get wiped out in West Virginia next week. And he will lose badly in Kentucky two weeks from now.

Obama is closer to being the Democratic nominee after tonight. But more than ever, his electability is a question mark. Tonight answered none of the questions that surround Barack Obama's electability. That is simply a fact.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 07, 2008 (boomark / email).