Legal Commentary

The Electoral Map vs. the Primary Map

By Jeralyn

Clinton Campaign Chairman Terry McCauliffe today said the primary race will be decided by June:

As talk swirled this morning over when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton should end her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, her campaign chairman predicted the party would have a presumptive nominee in June and, if it's not Clinton, she would campaign for Sen. Barack Obama.

As for Hillary, she said today:

"The delegate math may be complicated, but the electoral math is easy," Clinton said, arguing that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is a "formidable opponent" and that she has won more "swing states" -- such as Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania -- than Obama.

Hillary's campaign schedule is as full as always: [More...]

But the Clinton campaign showed no signs of slowing down. The New York senator began the day with an appearance in Charleston, W. Va., then was to fly on to Sioux Falls, S.D., and finish the day with an event in Central Point, Ore. -- all states still to hold nominating contests.

And Bill Clinton planned five appearances in West Virginia, a state his wife is favored to win Tuesday. But analysts generally agree that barring a tidal shift in support away from Obama, Clinton has little chance of overtaking the Illinois senator's delegate lead, which would leave the decision in the hands of the party superdelegates.

The point:

Clinton hopes that strong showings in the last few states will help her make the case to those uncommitted superdelegates that she has momentum and is better able to compete against McCain in crucial swing states in the fall.

In other news, Hillary's campaign took in $1 million in donations in the 24 hours after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.

For more on how the electoral vote may play out, see my post a few weeks ago based on an analysis by William Arnone, The Electoral Map and the Battleground States.

Update: 7pm MT: Comments now closed.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 08, 2008 (boomark / email).