Legal Commentary

Denial And The 50 State Strategy

By Big Tent Democrat

Remember the heady days of Obama Mania when he was going to compete in all 50 states and change politics as we know it? Well, we know those pipe dreams are over. It is now fashionable in the Obama blogs to discuss the grief stages for Hillary Clinton supporters as she is very unlikely to be the Democratic nominee. I am struck by how that process is playing with Obama supporters' faith in Obama's ability to compete in 50 states. First there was denial that primary results meant anything for the general election. When that became too silly a position to maintain, they began lashing out in anger at people who pointed out Obama's difficulties in important swing states. Now we have reached the bargaining stage. Charles Blow bargains for Obama's electability in today's NYTimes:

Obama is unlikely to win the heart of Appalachia in the general election, but he may not need to if he can make up ground on its northern frontier. If he wins New York and Pennsylvania (he lost both in the primaries) and flip-flopping Ohio (another primary loss) he will be in good position.

The electoral votes of the other heavily Appalachian states could be offset. For instance, if he wins Virginia (where a corner sits in Appalachia and which seems to be in play although it hasn't swung Democratic in more than 40 years) and Florida (which almost swung — or maybe did swing — Democratic in 2000), he will have won more electoral votes than in Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky and West Virginia combined.

(Emphasis supplied.) There is nothing more ironic to me than to read that winning Ohio and Florida will solve Obama's "Appalachian" problem. In case Mr. Blow is not familiar with the current polling, John McCain beats Barack Obama handily in both Ohio and Florida. Hillary Clinton beats McCain handily in both these states. It is the heart of her electability argument.

To be fair, Obama has a much better electability argument than that presented by Charles Blow. I have presented it myself. It is the Horace Greeley plan -Go West (and Midwest). Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Of course Obama needs to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania and the rest of the Kerry states under all scenarios. And if he can flip Ohio, he will be assured of the Presidency. Indeed, Obama is the favorite to be our next President.

But it is quite funny to see the 5 stages of grief that the Obama supporters love to use to mock Hillary Clinton supporters being so central to the acceptance by Barack Obama supporters of the death of the dream of 60% of the vote, 400 electoral votes and a 50 state Presidential strategy.

By Big Tent Democrat

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 17, 2008 (boomark / email).