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A daringly early take on High Court patterns

By Mark Obbie

Linda Greenhouse's penchant for thematic conclusions about the Supreme Court's output is on display today at a remarkably early point in the term. As every Court-watcher knows, the hardest cases -- those most likely to split the Court, and the cases that typically are most newsworthy -- come in June, as the term winds down. And yet, here's Greenhouse, declaring that "something is happening" to change dramatically the decision-making pattern of last term. Out with the 5-4 conservative-liberal splits, with Justice Anthony Kennedy in the pivotal spot. In with a greater degree of consensus, and a less sharply defined ideological divide. What good is such an early prognosis if the split-friendly cases have yet to come? First off, Greenhouse compares apples to apples: the two terms at the same point in time. She analyzes the cases decided so far this term to conclude that they could have turned out differently. She clearly acknowledges that end-of-term phenomenon and how it may change things. And she confesses what she doesn't know, always a transparent way to make a story more trustworthy. It works for me. Interestingly, she doesn't acknowledge the predictions by Court-watcher Tom Goldstein that many reporters relied on for their previews of this term last October. Goldstein predicted that the nature of this term's cases would yield much different results, and thus significant back-pedaling on journalists' understanding of how the Court had tacked hard right in the Roberts-Alito era. Greenhouse pretty much ignored those predictions last October, and seems to have reason to keep doing so -- since Goldstein's prediction hasn't actually panned out yet. He foresaw a continuation of close votes, but reaching liberal rather than conservative results. In fact, the cases are still coming out "conservative," in the main, but with many fewer one-vote margins, says Greenhouse. In another five weeks, we'll know if Greenhouse ends her final term on the beat with a clearer crystal ball than Goldstein's.

Full post as published by Lawbeat on May 23, 2008 (boomark / email).