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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 5 (Part 1b)

By Andis Kaulins

The Florida Gators (5.8, 3.5, SoS=147) (Gainesville, Florida) are favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Mississippi Rebels (6.5, 4.3, SoS=46) (Oxford, Mississippi). Our ratings make Florida about a 1.2 rating point favorite x 9 = 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 14 scoreboard points.
Our call: 34-20 for Florida.
Result: Florida lost 31-30 as Houston Nutt in his fourth game as head coach led the Rebels to a signature win. The Gators rolled up 443 total yards as opposed to the Mississippi 325 but lost three costly fumbles.
Our record this week is 10-6 in picking the winner and 7-6 against the spread.

The Florida State Seminoles (6.7, 3.5, SoS=89) (Tallahassee, Florida) are favored at home by 6 points over the Colorado Buffaloes (5.0, 4.7, SoS=84) (Boulder, Colorado). The Seminoles turned the ball over 7 times against Wake Forest last week (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles), as the offense failed to score a TD and the Seminoles lost ignominiously at home 12-3, completing only 12 of 36 passes. On paper, Florida State should win easily, also because of a very strong defense, but the QBs are perhaps weak. Moreover, the Buffs have allowed no more yards passing this year than Wake Forest, so that Florida State may be in for another rough day through the air. Last year Florida State won 16-6 at Colorado, but the Buffs are better this year, coming off a 17-14 win over then 21st-ranked West Virginia, but did not have to do much pass defense. This is a very tough game to call as far as any prognosticated final score is concerned. Too many ifs. We go with the home team and assume they will get back on track.
Our call: 24-17 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles won 39-21.
Our record this week is 11-6 in picking the winner and 8-6 against the spread.

The Fresno State Bulldogs (6.3, 5.6, SoS=69) (Fresno, California) are favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over the UCLA Bruins (3.8, 5.4, SoS=58) (Los Angeles, California). UCLA ranks 118th out of 120 teams in Division I-A FBS in terms of yards per play on offense. You can not win if you can not score. Here is some related trivia. UCLA is located in Westwood which adjoins the "platinum triangle" of Beverly Hills, Holmby Hills and Bel Air, where a plan for a community of grandiose estates was first formulated by merchant Arthur Letts Sr., who owned a good share of the former Wolfskill Farm, from which UCLA and the residential communities were carved. Arthur Letts Jr. built a personal mansion which today is better known as the Playboy mansion of Hugh Heffner. The idea of grand estates on the Letts property was a full success and many mansions have served as homes to world famous Hollywood personalities as also to merchants and other famous personages, such as former US Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. The West Gate of Bel Air at Bellagio Road and Sunset Boulevard is opposite an entrance for UCLA. In spite of all that pomp and circumstance, the team from Fresno appears to hold the edge in this football game, with an SPRS rating that suggests about a 2 TD victory minus the UCLA home field advantage.
Our call: 28-17 for Fresno State
Result: Fresno State won 36-31.
Our record this week is 12-6 in picking the winner and 8-7 against the spread.

The University of Georgia Bulldogs (Dogs) (7.1, 4.4, SoS=32) (Athens, Georgia) are favored at home by 6 points over the University of Alabama Crimson Tide (5.9, 3.8, SoS=40) (, ) (Tuscaloosa, Alabama). For this season, Georgia has a .7 SPRS rating advantage, which translates into 6 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 scoreboard points.
Our call: 26-17 for Georgia.
Result: Alabama pummeled Georgia in the first half to take a 31-0 lead and then cruised to a 41-30 win.
Our record this week is 12-7 in picking the winner and 8-8 against the spread.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (5.9, 4.1, SoS=57) (Iowa City (Coralville), Iowa) are favored at home by 8 points over the Northwestern Wildcats (5.2, 4.2, SoS=83) (Evanston, Illinois). The stats clearly favor Iowa by a rating advantage of about 9 scoreboard points plus 3 points home field advantage = 12 scoreboard points.
Our call: 29-17 for Iowa.
Result: Northwestern won 22-17 as the Hawkeyes lost 4 fumbles. Part of coaching responsibility is to teach football players how to hang on to the ball.
Our record this week is 12-8 in picking the winner and 8-9 against the spread.

The Kansas State Wildcats (6.5, 4.5, SoS=108) (Manhattan, Kansas) are favored at home by 20 points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (ULL) (6.4, 6.2, SoS=94) (Lafayette, Louisiana). By SPRS rating Kansas State is about a 16-point favorite plus 3-point home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Kansas State.
Result: Kansas State won 45-37 in an unimpressive win in which the Ragin' Cajuns put up more yardage on offense.
Our record this week is 13-8 in picking the winner and 8-10 against the spread.

The Kentucky Wildcats (4.7, 4.1, SoS=97) (Lexington, Kentucky) are favored at home by 22 1/2 points over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4.6, 5.5, SoS=124) (Bowling Green, Kentucky). Current SPRS ratings favor Kentucky by 19 points plus the home field advantage = 22 points.
Our call: 29-7 for Kentucky.
Result: Kentucky won 41-3.
Our record this week is 14-8 in picking the winner and 8-11 against the spread.

The Louisiana State (LSU) Tigers (6.6, 4.0, SoS=121) (Baton Rouge, Louisiana) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the Mississippi State University Bulldogs (4.6, 4.9, SoS=55) (Starkville, Mississippi). By current SPRS ratings, LSU has about a 20-point scoreboard advantage, plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 23 points.
Our call: 40-17 for LSU.
Result: LSU won 34-24.
Our record this week is 15-8 in picking the winner and 9-11 against the spread.

The opening line for the Memphis Tigers (5.8, 6.2, SoS=100) (Memphis, Tennessee) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7.5, 4.5, SoS=158) (Jonesboro, Arkansas) was zero. If Memphis can beat this Arkansas State team, it would be a surprise to this prognosticator, who sees an exceptional team at Jonesboro this year, beating Texas A&M to start out the season.
By SPRS ratings, Arkansas State looks like a 3 TD favorite, minus the Memphis home field advantage = 18 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Arkansas State.
Result: Memphis won 29-17.
Our record this week is 15-9 in picking the winner and 9-12 against the spread.

The Miami, Florida Hurricanes (5.3, 4.6, SoS=135) (Miami, Florida) are favored at home by 7 points over the North Carolina Tar Heels (6.1, 4.9, SoS=68) (Chapel Hill, North Carolina). By SPRS ratings, North Carolina looks like the favorite by 11 points minus the Miami 3-point home field advantage = 8 points.
Our call: 31-23 for North Carolina.
Result: North Carolina won 28-24.
Our record this week is 16-9 in picking the winner and 10-12 against the spread.

The Michigan State Spartans (5.2, 5.2, SoS=119) (East Lansing, Michigan) are favored on the road by 9 points over the Indiana Hoosiers (6.0, 4.9, SoS=113) (Bloomington, Indiana). By SPRS ratings, Indiana is favored by 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage for Indiana = 14 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Indiana.
Result: Michigan State won 42-29.
Our record this week is 16-10 in picking the winner and 10-13 against the spread.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.0, 4.9, SoS=27) (Lincoln, Nebraska) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Virginia Tech (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) Hokies (4.5, 5.5, SoS=14) (Blacksburg, Virginia). Even though the Huskers are undefeated this year, as written by Robin Washut at Huskers Illustrated, the Huskers give average grade after 3 games. Virginia Tech this year - as last year - has been weak offensively and not as good on defense as is their custom, so that they are averaging 272 yards per game on offense and giving up 328 yards per game on defense, so that it is remarkable that they have achieved their current 3-1 record against some good opposition. On paper, when comparing offensive and defensive yards per play stats, Nebraska has an SPRS 3.1 rating advantage x 9 = 28 points plus the 3-point home team advantage = 31 scoreboard points. Unless the Husker offense suddenly hits new highs, however, we look for a potentially closer game than that and, as a Husker alum, remain worried if the Huskers are really good enough to win this game, but we will, for now, go with the stats in calling the game score.
Our call: 38-7 for Nebraska.
Result: Our worst fears about the Huskers were realized as Nebraska underperformed both on offense and defense, allowing 377 total net yards to a team having virtually no offense and losing ignominiously at home 35-30, while rushing for a meagre 55 yards, as the passing game sputtered again. The Nebraska playcalling was no better than under preceding coach Callahan as the Huskers had three series of downs beginning with two unsuccessful rushing plays against a defense that was very strong against the rush, signalling the 3rd down pass and ending in punts, one with disastrous consequences.

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 29, 2008 (boomark / email).