International Law

What We Think We Know

Image via Wikipedia

Victoria Pynchon, over at her blog on Negotiation, has an interesting application of confirmation bias.

She writes:

I watched the debate last night with people who support my candidate. 

They all also happened to be mediators, so they understand concepts like confirmation bias --the tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoids information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs.

It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference, or as a form of selection bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of an alternative hypothesis.

... I missed statements made by McCain entirely. It was if I hadn't even heard them. I was listening to confirm that which I already believed, which means I screened out what didn't fit my view of McCain or Obama and highlighted those statements that confirmed my existing beliefs.

I disagree with Victoria's conclusion that nothing is objective, but bridging this type of divide is difficult.

Consider what Tracy Coenen writes about Obama at her website.

I think Tracy has done some great work on exposing the deceit behind many MLM schemes. But, I don't find the email she has on webpage a serious examination about Obama. For, me it borders on repugnant.

But, supposing I am wrong and Tracy is right- how would we bridge the divide? I am not going acknowledge the truth of these statements, given my mindset, and can bring up good reasons to doubt the conclusions. But, would we ever get to a rational agreement? I suspect not, which shows something of the power of the confirmation bias.

The philosophical liberal line here, as opposed to the political liberal value line, is that there are significant expressions of value and collectivity that cannot be reconciled, but that we have to find agreement without giving in. Which is what we need mediators for.

Full post as published by Misleading Advertising Law on October 20, 2008 (boomark / email).