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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 9 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, October 25, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

YPPSYS (tm)
College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 9 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, October 25, 2008. Odds are taken from the College Football Prediction Tracker from Monday, October 20. We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Net average yards per play offense and defense according to CFBSTATS.COM
SoS = Massey Ratings Strength of Schedule
SAHFA = Scott Albrecht Home Field Advantage in points
(The game score prediction formula is: NAYPPA (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage or Disadvantage between team offenses and team defenses) x 9, adjusted by the net difference in the strength of schedule as divided by 10, plus or minus the home field advantage in points, minus 2 points per loss per team, minus 1 point for a defense averaging 5.0 yards per play or worse or minus 2 points for a defense averaging 6.0 yards per play or worse.)

Tuesday, October 21

Ohio 2-5 (5.4, 5.5, SoS= 84) at Temple 2-5 (4.4, 5.0, SoS= 58, SAHFA= 1.64), Temple is favored by 4 points. YPPSYS stats make Ohio a 3-tenths of a point favorite.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Ohio 22 Temple 21
Result:

Thursday, October 23

Auburn 4-3 (4.3, 4.1, SoS= 75) at West Virginia 4-2 (5.6, 4.4, SoS= 83, SAHFA= -0.43), West Virginia is favored by 3.5 points. YPPSYS stats make the Mountaineers an 11-point favorite.
Our prediction of the winner and score: West Virginia 21 Auburn 10
Result:

New Mexico 4-4 (5.0, 5.2, SoS= 45) at Air Force 5-2 (5.2, 4.7, SoS= 81, SAHFA= 3.11), Air Force is favored by 6 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Falcons over the Lobos by 10.6 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Air Force 28 New Mexico 17
Result:

Friday, October 24

Boise State 6-0 (6.4, 4.3, SoS= 101) at San Jose State 5-2 (4.6, 4.4, SoS= 92, SAHFA= -1.31), Boise State is favored by 7 points. Both teams have equal defenses but the Broncos sport the better offense. YPPSYS stats favor Boise State by 21.5 points over the Spartans.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Boise State 35 San Jose State 14
Result:

Saturday, October 25

Alabama 7-0 (5.8, 4.4, SoS= 39) at Tennessee 3-4 (4.9, 4.1, SoS= 44, SAHFA= 2.03), Alabama is favored by 6.5 points. By YPPSYS stats, the Crimson Tide is favored over the Vols by 11.9 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Alabama 26 Tennessee 14
Result:

Texas Tech 7-0 (7.5, 5.0, SoS= 103) at Kansas 5-2 (6.1, 5.1, SoS= 48, SAHFA= 2.91), Kansas is favored by 2.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Red Raiders over the Jayhawks by 5 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Texas Tech 38 Kansas 33
Result:

Boston College 5-1 (5.3, 4.1, SoS= 94) at North Carolina 5-2 (5.5, 4.9, SoS= 24, SAHFA= 1.60), North Carolina is favored by 3 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Tar Heels over the Eagles by 1 point.
Our prediction of the winner and score: North Carolina 28 Boston College 27
Result:

Wake Forest 4-2 (4.3, 4.8, SoS= 20) at Miami (FL) 4-3 (4.9, 4.3, SoS= 46, SAHFA= 0.86), Miami (FL) is favored by 3 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Hurricanes by 6 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Miami of Florida 23 Wake Forest 17
Result:

Eastern Michigan 2-6 (5.4, 6.2, SoS= 112) at Ball State 7-0 (6.8, 5.3, SoS= 120, SAHFA= 3.69), Ball State is favored by 24 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Cardinals by 24.6 points over the Eagles.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Ball State 42 Eastern Michigan 17
Result:

Cincinnati 5-1 (5.9, 4.8, SoS= 99) at Connecticut 5-2 (5.5, 5.0, SoS= 65, SAHFA= -0.53), Connecticut is favored by 1 point. YPPSYS stats favor the Bearcats over the Huskies by 5.5 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Cincinnati 33 Connecticut 27
Result:

Northwestern 6-1 (5.2, 4.9, SoS= 61) at Indiana 2-5 (5.6, 5.6, SoS= 51, SAHFA= 2.43), Northwestern is favored by 9 points. YPPSYS stats favor Northwestern by 8 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Northwestern 31 Indiana 23
Result:

Illinois 4-3 (6.7, 5.2, SoS= 54) at Wisconsin 3-4 (5.5, 5.3, SoS= 33, SAHFA= 3.62), Illinois is favored by 1.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor Illinois by 8 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Illinois 35 Wisconsin 27
Result:

Minnesota 6-1 (5.4, 5.9, SoS= 87) at Purdue 2-5 (5.3, 5.4, SoS= 5, SAHFA= 3.16), Purdue and Minnesota are seen as even, at 0 points. YPPSYS stats also make this game even, a situation in which we give the win to the home team by 1 point.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Purdue 24 Minnesota 23
Result:

Central Michigan 5-2 (5.5, 6.1, SoS= 88) at Toledo 2-5 (5.0, 5.5, SoS= 80, SAHFA= 3.45), Central Michigan is favored by 3.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Chippewas by 1 point over the Rockets.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Central Michigan 27 Toledo 26
Result:

Oklahoma 6-1 (6.8, 4.6, SoS= 19) at Kansas State 4-3 (6.0, 5.6, SoS= 102, SAHFA= 4.87), Oklahoma is favored by 19 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Sooners over the Wildcats by 21 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Oklahoma 45 Kansas State 24
Result:

Kentucky 5-2 (4.8, 4.4, SoS= 70) at Florida 5-1 (6.5, 4.4, SoS= 18, SAHFA= 4.81), Florida is favored by 23 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Gators over the Wildcats by 25 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Florida 41 Kentucky 16
Result:

Baylor 3-4 (5.8, 4.9, SoS= 31) at Nebraska 4-3 (6.5, 5.7, SoS= 14, SAHFA= 4.87), Nebraska is favored by 10.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Cornhuskers by 7 points, although we look for the Husker offense to pick up in this game, and for the offensive coordination to start to jell. As a Husker alum, quite apart from the stats, we look for at least a 2 TD Husker win.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Nebraska 38 Baylor 24
Result:

Georgia 6-1 (6.6, 4.5, SoS= 15) at LSU 5-1 (6.0, 4.8, SoS=66, SAHFA= 0.60), LSU is favored by 2.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Bulldogs by 11.6 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Georgia 31 LSU 20
Result:

Louisiana Tech 3-3 (5.1, 5.7, SoS= 76) at Army 2-5 (4.8, 5.4, SoS= 117, SAHFA= 5.18), Army is favored by 1.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Bulldogs by 3 points over the Black Knights.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Louisiana Tech 30 Army 27
Result:

UNLV 3-4 (5.7, 6.6, SoS= 55) at Brigham Young 6-1 (6.1, 4.7, SoS= 89, SAHFA= 5.21), BYU is favored by 23 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Cougars over the Rebels by 30.5 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: BYU 38 UNLV 7
Result:

Duke 3-3 (4.5, 5.6, SoS= 1) at Vanderbilt 5-2 (4.4, 4.9, SoS=35, SAHFA= 3.91), Vanderbilt is favored by 10 points. YPPSYS stats make the Commodores a 9-point favorite over the Blue Devils, with Vandy winning by its better defense.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Vanderbilt 26 Duke 17
Result:

Fresno State 4-2 (6.6, 5.8, SoS= 105) at Utah State 1-6 (4.7, 6.0, SoS= 42, SAHFA= 4.59), Fresno State is favored by 17 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Bulldogs over the Aggies by 16 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Fresno State 37 Utah State 21
Result:

Rice 4-3 (6.0, 6.5, SoS= 79) at Tulane 2-4 (5.6, 5.4, SoS= 106, SAHFA= 4.59), Tulane is favored by 2.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Green Wave over the Owls by 7 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Tulane 38 Rice 31
Result:

Oklahoma State 7-0 (7.0, 4.9, SoS= 74) at Texas 7-0 (6.8, 4.9, SoS= 10, SAHFA= 2.47), Texas is favored by 12.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Longhorns over the Cowboys by 7 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Texas 45 Oklahoma State 38
Result:

Virginia Tech 5-2 (4.5, 5.3, SoS= 21) at Florida State 5-1 (5.9, 4.2, SoS= 97, SAHFA= 5.66), Florida State is favored by 4.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Seminoles over the Hokies by 24 point, but, one has to be cautious, as Frank Beamer is one of the great football coaches, this season sporting a fine winning record with a mediocre team whose stats warrant a 2-5 rather than a 5-2 record. That's the essence of great coaching, winning when you don't have the players, or staying close when you should be getting blown out of the stadium. Accordingly, we call the game by the stats, but would be very surprised to see this margin.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Florida State 31 Virginia Tech 7
Result:

South Florida 6-1 (6.0, 4.3, SoS= 78) at Louisville 4-2 (5.7, 4.6, SoS= 104, SAHFA= 0.59), South Florida is favored by 4.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Bulls over the Cardinals by 9 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: South Florida 30 Louisville 21
Result:

Michigan State 6-2 (5.1, 5.3, SoS= 27) at Michigan 2-5 (4.5, 5.1, SoS= 29, SAHFA= 1.08), Michigan State is favored by 5.5 points. Our stats favor the Spartans by 8.8 points, but we have a Michigan grad in the family, so we call here for the upset, based on the good Michigan play in the first half against Penn State, which they were unable to sustain against the potent Nittany Lions offense in the second half, but a performance which they may be able to sustain against the much weaker Spartan offense.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Michigan 24 Michigan State 23
Result:

Rutgers 2-5 (4.9, 5.5, SoS= 52) at Pittsburgh 5-1 (5.4, 4.7, SoS= 40, SAHFA= 4.17), Pittsburgh is favored by 9.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Panthers over the Scarlet Knights by 26 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Pittsburgh 40 Rutgers 14
Result:

UCLA 3-4 (4.5, 5.3, SoS= 36) at California 5-2 (6.1, 4.3, SoS= 34, SAHFA= 3.72), California is favored by 17.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Bears over the Bruins by 32 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Cal 42 UCLA 10
Result:

Virginia 4-3 (4.6, 5.1, SoS= 3) at Georgia Tech 6-1 (5.9, 3.9, SoS= 69, SAHFA= 2.20), Georgia Tech is favored by 11.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Yellow Jackets over the Cavaliers by 23 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Georgia Tech 30 Virginia 7
Result:

North Carolina State 2-5 (4.7, 5.9, SoS= 11) at Maryland 5-2 (6.0, 5.1, SoS= 77, SAHFA= 6.57), Maryland is favored by 10.5 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Terrapins over the Wolfpack by 27 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Maryland 41 North Carolina State 14
Result:

Kent State 1-6 (5.5, 5.8, SoS= 109) at Miami (OH) 2-5 (4.6, 5.4, SoS= 98, SAHFA= 1.53), Miami of Ohio is favored by 8 points. YPPSYS stats favor the Redhawks over the Golden Flashes by about a half-a-point.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Miami 21 Kent State 20
Result:

Southern Methodist 1-7 (5.9, 6.8, SoS= 59) at Navy 4-3 (6.1, 6.0, SoS= 28, SAHFA= -5.49), Navy is favored by 12.5 points. June Jones has the SMU offense moving but still has to get the terrible defense on track, which ranks close to the bottom both rushing and passing. A rushing defense which has allowed over 5 yards per play has no chance against the Navy rushing offense. YPPSYS stats favor the Midshipmen over the Mustangs by 16 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Navy 46 SMU 30
Result:

Bowling Green 3-4 (5.1, 5.2, SoS= 60) at Northern Illinois 4-3 (5.7, 4.6, SoS= 119, SAHFA= 6.56), Northern Illinois is favored by 8 points. YPPSYS favors the Huskies over the Falcons by 14 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Northern Illinois 38 Bowling Green 24
Result:

New Mexico State 3-3 (6.0, 5.4, SoS= 95) at Idaho 1-7 (4.8, 6.9, SoS= 113, SAHFA= -0.04), New Mexico State is favored by 15 points. YPPSYS favors the Aggies over the Vandals by 36 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: New Mexico State 49 Idaho 13
Result:

Wyoming 2-5 (4.0, 4.8, SoS= 63) at TCU 7-1 (5.1, 3.8, SoS= 64, SAHFA= 2.58), TCU is favored by 32 points. YPPSYS favors the Horned Frogs over the Cowboys by 29 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: TCU 38 Wyoming 9
Result:

Colorado 4-3 (4.4, 5.2, SoS= 13) at Missouri 5-2 (7.6, 5.4, SoS= 23, SAHFA= 7.96), Missouri is favored by 21.5 points. YPPSYS favors the Tigers over the Buffaloes by 36 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Missouri 46 Colorado 10
Result:

Mississippi 3-4 (6.0, 5.0, SoS= 16) at Arkansas 3-4 (5.2, 5.5, SoS= 9, SAHFA= 3.43), Mississippi is favored by 4 points. YPPSYS favors the Rebels over the Razorbacks by 8 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Mississippi 31 Arkansas 23
Result:

Texas A&M 2-5 (5.4, 5.9, SoS= 47) at Iowa State 2-5 (5.0, 6.2, SoS= 85, SAHFA= 2.80), Iowa State is favored by 3 points. This is a battle of the cellar dwellers of the Big 12. YPPSYS favors the Aggies over the Cyclones by 8 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Texas A&M 28 Iowa State 20
Result:

Troy 4-2 (5.6, 4.7, SoS= 71) at North Texas 0-7 (5.1, 7.2, SoS= 82, SAHFA= 4.87), Troy is favored by 24 points. YPPSYS favors Troy by 36 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Troy 50 North Texas 14
Result:

Middle Tennessee State 2-5 (4.6, 5.4, SoS= 57) at Mississippi State 2-5 (4.3, 4.8, SoS= 32, SAHFA= 3.45), Mississippi State is favored by 11.5 points. YPPSYS favors the Bulldogs over the Blue Raiders by 8.65 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Mississippi State 23 Middle Tennessee State 14
Result:

Florida Atlantic 2-5 (5.4, 5.6, SoS= 30) at Louisiana-Monroe 2-5 (5.6, 6.7, SoS= 131, SAHFA= 0.15), Florida Atlantic is favored by 2 points. YPPSYS favors the Owls over the Warhawks by 20 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Florida Atlantic 38 Louisiana-Monroe 28
Result:

Penn State 8-0 (6.9, 4.1, SoS= 91) at Ohio State 7-1 (5.1, 4.3, SoS= 37, SAHFA= 2.80), Penn State is favored by 2 points. YPPSYS favors the Nittany Lions over the Buckeyes by 14 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Penn State 31 Ohio State 17
Result:

Southern Miss 2-5 (5.6, 6.0, SoS= 86) at Memphis 3-5 (5.7, 6.2, SoS= 115, SAHFA= 1.47) currently shows no official line but a prediction average favoring Memphis by 1 point. YPPSYS favors the Golden Eagles over the Tigers by 1 point.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Southern Miss 31 Memphis 30
Result:

Notre Dame 4-2 (5.5, 5.3, SoS= 41) at Washington 0-6 (4.7, 7.2, SoS= 2, SAHFA= 2.19), Notre Dame is favored by 11.5 points. YPPSYS favors the Fighting Irish over the Huskies by 26 points. Our prediction of the winner and score: Notre Dame 40 Washington 14
Result:

Colorado State 3-4 (5.1, 6.0, SoS= 22) at San Diego State 1-6 (4.5, 5.8, SoS= 50, SAHFA= 3.43), Colorado State is favored by 7.5 points. YPPSYS favors the Rams over the Aztecs by 7 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Colorado State 28 San Diego State 21
Result:

Oregon 5-2 (6.0, 4.8, SoS= 53) at Arizona State 2-4 (5.2, 4.9, SoS= 6, SAHFA= 4.10), Oregon is favored by 4 points. YPPSYS favors Oregon by 3 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Oregon 27 Arizona State 24
Result:

USC 5-1 (7.0, 3.4, SoS= 4) at Arizona 5-2 (6.0, 4.6, SoS= 93, SAHFA= -0.15), USC is favored by 15 points. YPPSYS favors the Trojans over the Wildcats by 30 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Southern Cal 44 Arizona 14
Result:

Sunday, October 26

Nevada 4-3 (6.8, 5.7, SoS= 96) at Hawaii 3-4 (5.1, 5.3, SoS= 7, SAHFA= 12.62), Nevada is favored by 3 points. YPPSYS favors the Warriors over the Wolf Pack by 8 points.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Hawaii 35 Nevada 27
Result:

UCF 2-4 (3.8, 5.0, SoS= 72) at Tulsa 7-0 (8.4, 6.0, SoS= 116, SAHFA= 3.64), Tulsa is favored by 22 points. Our stats make Tulsa a 45-point favorite.
Tulsa lost twice on the road to its nemesis UCF last year 44-23 and 44-25, so caution is advised. Will they able to turn the tables this year on their own home field? The Golden Hurricane is undefeated at 7-0, leads the nation in total offense and is averaging 56-27 points per game. UCF is 2-4, but has played a substantially stronger schedule. Nevertheless, UCF has the worst net average yards per play on offense in the nation, ranking 120th with 3.8 yards per play. Even if they shut down the Tulsa offense some, their own offense is not good enough to overcome the Tulsa offensive advantage. It will probably be closer than our stats predict.
Our prediction of the winner and score: Tulsa 59 UCF 14
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on October 21, 2008 (boomark / email).