Legal Commentary

How The GOP Brand Lost The Election

By Big Tent Democrat

There are innumberable variables in how an election is decided and generally speaking, it is not easy to isolate what factor "cost a candidate the election." This election, however, it seems to me a fairly easy exercise. John McCain lost this election on September 15, 2008. On September 15, 2008, Barack Obama had a slight lead over McCain in the polls (if you prefer the RCP average, then you would say McCain was leading.)So what happened?

On September 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy after the federal government refused to bail it out. That was the beginning of the meltdown on Wall Street that led to the bailout that was passed in late September. It signalled the terrible economic times we are now facing are going to get worse, much worse. And John McCain said:

[T]he fundamentals of our economy are strong . . .

Thus in one fell swoop John McCain confirmed every bad thought the country had about Republicans when it comes to economic matters - uncaring, incompetent, out of touch and only worried about the wealthy. Barack Obama capitalized on this - he became quite the partisan Democrat then (in fairness, he has been quite the partisan Democrat since the Convention):

Sen. Barack Obama seized on McCain's assessment of the health of the economy, blasting the Republican for being "disturbingly out of touch" with the reality that everyday Americans face.

"I just think he doesn't know," Obama said in Grand Junction, Colo. "He doesn't get what's happening between the mountain in Sedona where he lives and the corridors of Washington where he works.... Why else would he say, today, of all days -- just a few hours ago -- that the fundamentals of the economy are still strong? Senator -- what economy are you talking about?"

By September 18, Obama had moved ahead in the RCP average. By October 1, Obama had opened up a 5 point lead in the RCP average. It has never been that close since. Currently, Obama leads by nearly 8 points in the RCP average.

So, as much as some people want to keep thinking this election is about Sarah Palin, I have to repeat Carville's refrain - "it's the economy, stupid." And when "it's the economy" - that's good news for Democrats.

And while Obama is now a lock to win the Presidency, Democrats are likely to gain another 30 seats in the House and perhaps even achieve a filibuster proof Senate.

It is the GOP brand that has lost this election. McCain and Palin are merely along for the ride.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 25, 2008 (boomark / email).