Legal Commentary

Karl Rove's Prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200

By Jeralyn

Via the LA Times, Karl Rove has released his final electoral map predictions.

The final Rove & Co. electoral map (pdf)of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.

Rove's predictions are only 1 EV different than Democratic strategist William Arnone's which I wrote about here.

It will be an early election night if Obama takes PA, FL and Ohio. Does anyone forsee any surprises? I think Obama has a decent shot at North Carolina and a chance at Indiana. I won't be surprised if he tops 350 electoral votes. But I'll gladly take 338 or 339.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 03, 2008 (boomark / email).