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YPPSYS College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 12 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 15, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

YPPSYS (tm)
College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 12 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 15, 2008. Odds are taken from the College Football Prediction Tracker from Tuesday, November 11. We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.
Net average yards per play offense and defense according to CFBSTATS.COM
SoS = Massey Ratings Strength of Schedule
For this week, we calculate an average home field advantage of 2.5 points pursuant to the Sagarin calculation at USA Today .

(The game score prediction formula is:
NAYPPA (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage or Disadvantage between team offenses and team defenses) x 9, adjusted by the net difference in the strength of schedule as divided by 10, plus or minus the home field advantage in points, minus 2 points per loss per team, minus 1 point for a defense averaging 5.0 yards per play or worse or minus 2 points for a defense averaging 6.0 yards per play or worse. Thus far this year, the median net average yards per play for a team in Division IA FBS college football is 5.4 on offense, and 5.3 on defense - excactly the same as the previous season) We would also ultimately like to include a MOV (margin of victory) variable in our calculations, but this is not yet implemented.

Air Force (5.1, 4.6, SoS=80) is a 4 point underdog at home to BYU (6.4, 5.0, SoS=92).
Our Call: Our stats make BYU a 6.5 point favorite and we call it 27-20 for BYU.
Result:

Akron (5.8, 5.7, SoS=97) is favored at home by 2.5 points over Buffalo (5.6, 5.9, SoS=73).
Our Call: Our stats make Akron a 3.7 point favorite but we see the steadily improving Turner Gill team of Buffalo winning 31-30.
Result:

Alabama (5.7, 4.2, SoS=45) is favored at home by 19.5 points over Mississippi State (4.4, 4.7, SoS=70).
Our Call: Nick Saban has proven himself to be perhaps justifiably the nation's highest paid head college football coach by having this not yet quite that good a team ranked number one in the nation. The Bulldogs on the other hand rank 112th in Division I-A FBS football in terms of net average yards per play gained on offense, compared to the Crimson Tide ranking 4th nationally in terms of net average yards allowed per play on defense, so it is hard to see Mississippi State scoring at all in this game. We call it 21-0 for Alabama.
Result:

Arizona State (5.1, 5.1, SoS=24) is favored at home by 36.5 points over Washington State (3.9, 6.9, SoS=41).
Our Call: Washington State has the dubious honor of ranking 119th and 117th nationally in terms of yards per play on offense and defense, being rivalled by sister school Washington at 116th and 117th (tied) respectively. In its last game Washington State went to a "3-3-5 look defense" and was briefly competitive before losing, so one has to be careful here with the spread, especially since the Sun Devil offense is no better than average.
Result: We call it 45-14 for the Sun Devils.

Auburn (4.6, 4.7, SoS=74) is an 8 point underdog at home to Georgia (6.8, 5.0, SoS=6).
Our Call: Auburn and Georgia have comparable defenses but the Tigers in comparison have little offense, so we expect a lower-scoring game. We call it 27-7 for Georgia.
Result:

Baylor (5.8, 5.3, SoS=12) is favored at home by 8.5 points over Texas A&M (5.3, 6.2, SoS=19).
Our Call: This is a battle of the cellar dwellars in the South Division of the Big 12. Baylor has been steadily improving and we call it 37-21 for the Bears.
Result:

Clemson (5.4, 4.7, SoS=18) is favored at home by 11.5 points over Duke (4.6, 5.4, SoS=2).
Our Call: The Blue Devils are greatly improved this year but not yet better than the Tigers. We give Clemson the nod 31-21.
Result:

Colorado (4.5, 5.4, SoS=22) is a 17.5 point underdog at home to Oklahoma State (7.2, 5.4, SoS=43).
Our Call: Oklahoma State is simply in the wrong conference and in the wrong division. In spite of a very stong team this year, the Cowboys could wind up losing three games in the powerful South Division of the Big 12, playing Oklahoma next week, after losses to Texas and Texas Tech.
The Buffs from the weaker North Division appear to have little chance here and we call it 41-21 for Oklahoma State.
Result:

Colorado State (5.5, 6.4, SoS=32) is favored at home by 1 point over New Mexico (4.9, 4.9, SoS=37).
Our Call: 24-20 for New Mexico.
Result:

Florida (6.7, 4.6, SoS=5) is favored at home by 20.5 points over South Carolina (5.0, 4.2, SoS=21).
Our Call: Florida has been improving constantly but the Gamecocks are 7-3 and no pushover, with all three losses coming only by 7 points to Vanderbilt, Georgia and LSU, and they beat Mississippi, which Florida failed to do, so caution is advised We call it for the Gators 31-17.
Result:

Florida Atlantic (5.7, 5.4, SoS=107) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Louisiana-Lafayette (6.9, 6.0, SoS=120). We call if for Florida Atlantic 38-35.
Our Call:
Result:

Florida State (5.8, 4.5, SoS=53) is favored at home by 7 points over Boston College (4.8, 4.4, SoS=41).
Our Call: We call it for the Seminoles 17-7.
Result:

Fresno State (6.4, 6.2, SoS=89) is favored at home by 15 points over New Mexico State (5.5, 5.7, SoS=99).
Our Call: 38-31 for Fresno State.
Result:

Houston (6.9, 5.4, SoS=109) is a 5.5 point underdog at home to Tulsa (8.0, 5.7, SoS=115).
Our Call: 51-41 for Tulsa.
Result:

Idaho (5.0, 6.6, SoS=111) is a 34 point underdog at home to Boise State (6.4, 4.1, SoS=104).
Our Call: Idaho has allowed 53 TDs, the Boise State defense only 12. We call it 49-10 for Boise State.
Result:

Illinois (6.3, 5.2, SoS=61) is a 10 point underdog at home to Ohio State (5.3, 4.3, SoS=51).
Our Call: The Illini were ambushed by Western Michigan last week but at home they are likely to be more formidable. We call it 24-21 for Ohio State.
Result:

Iowa (5.8, 4.5, SoS=50) is favored at home by 15 points over Purdue (5.0, 5.3, SoS=23).
Our Call: Iowa beat previously unbeated Penn State last week so they may be prone for a letdown here. We call it for Iowa 27-17.
Result:

Iowa State (5.3, 6.6, SoS=69) is a 26.5 point underdog at home to Missouri (7.3, 5.1, SoS=31).
Our Call: We call it 52-14 for Missouri.
Result:

Kansas (6.1, 5.5, SoS=34) is a 13.5 point underdog at home to Texas (6.6, 5.4, SoS=3).
Our Call: 38-34 for Texas.
Result:

Kansas State (5.8, 5.9, SoS=36) is a 6.5 point underdog at home to Nebraska (6.5, 6.0, SoS=8).
Our Call: Both offenses have scored 41 TDs for the season but the Wildcats have allowed 45 TDs to the Husker 36 TDs. We call it for Nebraska 41-32.
Result:

Kent (5.7, 5.8, SoS=119) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Temple (4.4, 4.9, SoS=64).
Our Call: We call it for the home team and go with the Golden Flashes 21-20.
Result:

Kentucky (4.6, 5.1, SoS=47) is favored at home by 4 points over Vanderbilt (4.4, 5.0, SoS=15).
Our Call: Our stats see this game as even so we go with home team and call if for Kentucky 17-16.
Result:

LSU (5.8, 5.0, SoS=17) is favored at home by 19.5 points over Troy State (5.7, 4.4, SoS=122).
Our Call: 30-21 for LSU.
Result:

Louisiana Tech (5.0, 5.2, SoS=88) is favored at home by 12.5 points over Utah State (5.0, 6.1, SoS=29).
Our Call: 21-7 for Louisiana Tech.
Result:

Louisville (5.5, 5.0, SoS=84) is a 3 point underdog at home to Cincinnati (5.6, 4.7, SoS=59).
Our Call: These teams seem to be evenly matched with a slight defensive edge to the Bearcats. We call it 24-17 for Cincinnati.
Result:

Marshall (5.1, 5.6, SoS=98) is favored at home by 7.5 points over Central Florida (UCF) (3.7, 4.8, SoS=85).
Our Call: Marshall 31-21.
Result:

Maryland (5.9, 5.1, SoS=28) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to North Carolina (5.4, 4.9, SoS=11).
Our Call: Only 6 points separate the 2-loss Tar Heels from a thus far perfect season, whereas Maryland has lost 3 of its 4 road games, but is unbeaten at home, beating three ranked teams. We call it 21-20 for Maryland.
Result:

Miami of Florida (5.0, 4.3, SoS=13) is favored at home by 4 points over Virginia Tech (4.6, 5.1, SoS=16).
Our Call: Miami of Florida 28-14.
Result:

Miami of Ohio (4.7, 5.7, SoS=106) is a 17.5 point underdog at home to Ball State (7.0, 5.2, SoS=117).
Our Call: Ball State 38-14.
Result:

Michigan (4.7, 5.2, SoS=40) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Northwestern (5.0, 5.1, SoS=63).
Our Call: Michigan 31-27.
Result:

Mississippi (5.8, 5.2, SoS=9) is favored at home by 21.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe (5.5, 6.5, SoS=124).
Our Call: 44-14 for Mississippi.
Result:

North Carolina State (4.9, 5.8, SoS=14) is a 4 point underdog at home to Wake Forest (4.3, 4.9, SoS=4).
Our Call: On a yards per play basis, the Demon Deacons rank 116th out of 120 teams on offense so that their 6-3 record is simply incredible. That is why they - as the top team in the Atlantic division of the ACC - are only 4-point favorites against the cellar dwellar in that same division. Virginia Tech leads the Coastal division of the ACC with a similarly dismal offense, ranked 104th by yards per play gained. We call it 24-17 for Wake Forest.
Result:

Navy (5.9, 5.9, SoS=55) is a 3 point underdog at home to Notre Dame (5.3, 4.9, SoS=57).
Our Call: Charlie Weis has taken over the playcalling for this game after being shut out by Boston College 17-0 last week, in a game in which the Fighting Irish turned the ball over 5 times. We call it - and only for that reason - 27-24 for Notre Dame.
Result:

Nevada (6.9, 5.7, SoS=79) is favored at home by 14.5 points over San Jose State (4.5, 4.6, SoS=90).
Our Call: Nevada 24-7
Result:

Northern Illinois (5.5, 5.0, SoS=112) is favored at home by 3 points over Central Michigan (5.5, 6.3, SoS=91).
Our Call: 28-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result:

Oregon (6.0, 4.7, SoS=60) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Arizona (5.9, 4.6, SoS=86).
Our Call: 26-21 for Oregon
Result:

Oregon State (5.9, 4.8, SoS=30) is favored at home by 3 points over California (5.6, 4.4, SoS=26).
Our Call: Cal has a very good team that is hampered by weak playcalling and poor coaching, such as in its 17-3 loss to USC last week. Games that should be close or that should be won are lost, such as the 35-27 loss to Maryland, where Cal gained 461 total yards and the Terrapins only 297. When those kinds of stats surface, it is time to replace people in offensive coordination.
Result:

Penn State (6.5, 4.2, SoS=68) is favored at home by 34 points over Indiana (5.5, 5.7, SoS=66).
Our Call: Penn State 38-13.
Result:

San Diego State (4.7, 6.2, SoS=67) is a 28 point underdog at home to Utah (5.6, 4.5, SoS=52).
Our Call: Utah 45-7.
Result:

South Florida (5.8, 4.6, SoS=77) is favored at home by 7.5 points over Rutgers (5.4, 5.5, SoS=33).
Our Call: South Florida 33-21.
Result:

Southern Miss (5.7, 5.8, SoS=101) is favored at home by 2 points over East Carolina (5.0, 5.0, SoS=72).
Our Call: East Carolina is greatly hampered by an ineffectual offense so that we call it 31-24 for Southern Miss.
Result:

Stanford (5.4, 5.3, SoS=62) is a 22.5 point underdog at home to USC (6.7, 3.3, SoS=25).
Our Call: Stanford is the one football team in the nation in Division I-A FBS football that comes closest to the median values for all teams for net yards per play offense (5.4) and defense (5.3), also playing a median schedule ranked 62nd among 120 teams. Last year Stanford pulled off the upset of the century, winning 24-23 in spite of being more than a 40-point underdog, something that had never happened before in college football. This is very unlikely to happen this year as the Trojans should be prepared this time around, even though they are playing on the road at Stanford. As a Stanford alumnus, we are still pulling for Stanford. However, we call it by the stats 44-14 for USC.
Result:

Syracuse (4.9, 6.1, SoS=46) is a 10 point underdog at home to Connecticut (5.3, 4.9, SoS=38).
Our Call: Connecticut 28-14.
Result:

Tulane (5.1, 6.0, SoS=82) is favored at home by 5 points over UAB (5.7, 7.2, SoS=113).
Our Call: UAB is tied (119th) with North Texas as the worst defense in the country as judged by yards per play allowed (7.2 yards). We call it for Tulane 38-27.
Result:

UNLV (5.4, 6.3, SoS=35) is favored at home by 8.5 points over Wyoming (4.4, 4.8, SoS=76).
Our Call: Wyoming went into the game a 4-touchdown underdog and beat Tennessee of the SEC 13-7 last week confirming that the Mountain West is a very strong conference this year. We call it for UNLV 17-16.
Result:

UTEP (5.8, 6.7, SoS=83) is favored at home by 10 points over SMU (5.8, 6.5, SoS=75).
Our Call: 41-40 for SMU.
Result:

Washington (4.3, 6.9, SoS=7) is a 7.5 point underdog at home to UCLA (4.3, 5.5, SoS=49).
Our Call: Two virtually non-existent offenses meet, with UCLA having the better defense. We call it for UCLA 28-14
Result:

Western Kentucky (4.8, 5.5, SoS=105) is a 3 point underdog at home to Middle Tennessee (4.8, 5.5, SoS=95).
Our Call: These teams look even so we go with the home team and call it for Western Kentucky 28-27.
Result:

Western Michigan (6.2, 5.5, SoS=108) is favored at home by 15.5 points over Toledo (5.2, 5.6, SoS=78).
Our Call: Western Michigan knocked off Illinois last week. We call it for the Broncos 38-28.
Result:

Wisconsin (5.7, 5.0, SoS=39) is favored at home by 14 points over Minnesota (5.1, 5.6, SoS=81).
Our Call: Wisconsin 38-20.
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on November 11, 2008 (boomark / email).