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YPPSYS College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 13 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 22, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

There is no way that Alabama should be ranked Number 1 this year. The pollsters are favoring a weak SEC whose Tennessee lost to Wyoming and whose LSU trailed Troy State 31-3 in the 3rd quarter. According to the Massey Ratings, the Crimson Tide has played only the 51st hardest schedule in Division I-A FBS football and according to Sagarin the 72nd hardest schedule. In spite of that, their net yards per play average is substantially below figures achieved by teams that have played a much tougher schedule. A team like Texas for example, who Massey ranks as having played the toughest schedule in the country this year thus far, has played four top 10 teams and beaten three. Alabama has yet to play a top ten team this year. That they have improved over last year's 7-6 record (no game was lost by more than one TD) is clear, but that they are really not the best team in the country is not in doubt in this quarter, and there are easily 5 or 6 teams in the nation that would be favored against them in direct competition, especially because the Alabama offense is nothing to shout about. Indeed, there is little doubt that Florida will be favored against them in the SEC championship game. If Alabama ever falls behind in the score against a good offensive ball club like Florida, it will probably be over except for the shouting. The trouble is, if Florida beats the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship game, as they seem likely to do, Florida too will then be ranked Number 1 because of the SEC poll and ranking bias. In fact, the SEC ranks only 3rd this year in actual conference performance. Indeed, by pure points, the Big 12 has 4 teams in the top 10 and 5 total in the top 20 whereas the SEC has but 1 team in the top 10 and 2 total in the top 20 this year. How then can Alabama be rated Number One? Frankly, we do not understand it.

Last week we went 38-12 in calling the winner of the game and 27-21-2 against the point spread. Our record for the season is 557-175 in calling the winner and 256-240-7 against the spread. We are beating almost all systems listed at the College Football Prediction Tracker. Here are our predictions for the current week which has great matchups and several games in which we go directly against the point spread and even the pick of winner, using our YPPSYS (tm) system.

YPPSYS (tm) College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 13 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 22, 2008. Odds are taken from the 10:41 A.M. version of the College Football Prediction Tracker from Tuesday, November 18, 2008 (aside: Latvian Independence Day and the Wedding Anniversary Day of the LawPundit's parents). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Net average yards per play offense and defense are taken according to CFBSTATS.COM

SoS = Massey Ratings Strength of Schedule

For this week, we calculate an average home field advantage of 2.5 points pursuant to the Sagarin calculation at USA Today .

(The game score prediction formula is:
NAYPPA (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage or Disadvantage between team offenses and team defenses) x 9, adjusted by the net difference in the strength of schedule as divided by 10, plus or minus the home field advantage in points, minus 2 points per loss per team, minus 1 point for a defense averaging 5.0 yards per play or worse or minus 2 points for a defense averaging 6.0 yards per play or worse. Thus far this year, the median net average yards per play for a team in Division IA FBS college football is 5.4 on offense, and 5.3 on defense - excactly the same as the previous season) We would also ultimately like to include a MOV (margin of victory) variable in our calculations, but this is not yet implemented.

Arizona (5.8, 4.9, SoS=83) is favored at home by 3 points over Oregon State (5.8, 4.7, SoS=23)
Our Call: We pick a different winner than the line and go with the strong Ducks by a TD, 28-21.
Result:

Arkansas State (6.1, 5.3, SoS=117) is favored at home by 5.5 points over Florida Atlantic (6.0, 5.4, SoS=105)
Our Call: This is a game of evenly matched teams. Our stats give Arkansas State a 3-point advantage due to their status as the home team. We call it 31-28 for Arkansas State.
Result:

Bowling Green (5.2, 5.1, SoS=101) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Buffalo (5.5, 6.0, SoS=81)
Our Call: We are fans of Buffalo and Turner Gill, and they have improved this year, but the coaching staff has to do something about their terrible defense, which is far more important for winning than the offense. Last year Buffalo lost to the Falcons 31-17 at home, so what are the odds that they can win on the road this year? The stats favor Bowling Green by 3.9 points. We call it for the Falcons 31-27.
Result:

California (5.4, 4.4, SoS=18) is favored at home by 9 points over Stanford (5.4, 5.5, SoS=46)
Our Call: Stanford needs this win to become bowl eligible, but we just do not know how they are going to get it, as they face a team with superior talent, if also lesser coaching skill. Our stats make Cal a 19.2 point favorite. As a Stanford alum, we hope the Cardinal wins, but call it 40-21 for Cal.
Result:

Central Michigan (5.6, 6.1, SoS=97) is a 7 point underdog at home to Ball State (7.1, 5.2, SoS=121)
Our Call: Our stats make Ball State a 17.7 point favorite. It is hard to see the weak Chippewa defense standing up to the strong Ball State offense. We call it 45-28 for the Cardinals.
Result:

Cincinnati (5.6, 4.7, SoS=69) is favored at home by 4.5 points over Pittsburgh (5.4, 5.0, SoS=59)
Our Call: This game pits the top two teams in the Big East in terms of overall record with each other. Our stats make the Bearcats the favorite by 7 points. We call it 24-17 for Cincinnati.
Result:

Florida International (4.6, 5.0, SoS=103) is favored at home by 6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) (5.3, 6.6, SoS=120)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Golden Panthers by 13 points. We call it 30-17 for Florida International.
Result:

Georgia Tech (5.8, 4.4, SoS=39) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Miami of Florida (4.9, 4.3, SoS=16)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Yellow Jackets by 7 points. We call it 24-17 for Georgia Tech.
Result:

Hawaii (5.3, 5.7, SoS=106) is favored at home by 23 points over Idaho (5.0, 6.7, SoS=102)
Our Call: Our stats favor Hawaii by 29 points. We call it for Hawaii 49-20.
Result:

Houston (7.1, 5.5, SoS=35) is favored at home by 15 points over UTEP (5.9, 6.5, SoS=92)
Our Call: Houston demolished Tulsa last week and should be on a roll. Our stats favor the Cougars by 25 points. We call it 52-27 for Houston.
Result:

Kansas State (5.7, 6.1, SoS=33) is favored at home by 9.5 points over Iowa State (5.3, 6.7, SoS=61)
Our Call: Our stats favor K-State by 18 points. We call it 42-24 for the Wildcats.
Result:

Kent State (5.8, 5.8, SoS=119) is a 3.5 point underdog at home to Northern Illinois (5.4, 5.1, SoS=109)
Our Call: Our stats favor Northern Illinois by 5 points. We call it 28-26 for the Huskies.
Result:

LSU (5.6, 4.9, SoS=22) is favored at home by 5 points over Mississippi (6.0, 5.0, SoS=21)
Our Call: Our stats see LSU as a 1 point favorite, and only because they have the home field advantage. We call it 27-26 for LSU.
Result:

Louisville (5.4, 5.1, SoS=79) is a 7 point underdog at home to West Virginia (5.5, 4.4, SoS=55)
Our Call: Our stats make the Mountaineers a 13 point favorite. We call it for West Virginia, 30-17.
Result:

Maryland (5.6, 5.2, SoS=36) is favored at home by 1.5 points over Florida State (5.8, 4.5, SoS=45)
Our Call: Someone recently made the mistake of saying - will the best team in the ACC stand up - and 10 teams fell over their chairs while attempting to stand. Utter chaos in that league. Our stats favor Florida State by 5 points, given the Maryland home field advantage. We call it for the Seminoles 28-23.
Result:

Memphis (5.8, 6.2, SoS=111) is favored at home by 5 points over Central Florida (UCF) (3.6, 4.8, SoS=85)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Tigers by 11 points. We call it 34-23 for Memphis.
Result:

Middle Tennessee State (4.7, 5.4, SoS=104) is favored at home by 20 points over North Texas (5.0, 7.2, SoS=107)
Our Call: Our stats favor Middle Tennesse by 27 points over North Texas. We call it 44-17 for the Blue Raiders.
Result:

Minnesota (5.1, 5.6, SoS=75) is a 5.5 point underdog at home to Iowa (5.8, 4.5, SoS=53)
Our Call: No matter how this game goes, Minnesota (7-4 thus far) has enjoyed a fantastic year, considering their 1-11 record last year. Wisconsin was lucky to beat them 35-32 last week. Iowa (also 7-4) is strong and only 12 points separate them from a perfect season. Our stats make the Hawkeyes a 14-point favorite and we call it 28-14 for Iowa.
Result:

Mississippi State (4.3, 4.8, SoS=47) is favored at home by 1 point over Arkansas (5.3, 5.6, SoS=11)
Our Call: Our stats favor Arkansas by 5 points. We call it for Arkansas 21-16.
Result:

Nevada (6.9, 5.7, SoS=74) is a 6 point underdog at home to Boise State (6.5, 4.2, SoS=108)
Our Call: The strong Nevada offense meets a very strong Boise State defense that has allowed only 13 TDs this year. Our stats make the Broncos a 12-point favorite. We call it 28-16 for Boise State.
Result:

New Mexico State (5.4, 5.6, SoS=96) is a 7 point underdog at home to Louisiana Tech (5.0, 5.3, SoS=88)
Our Call: Our stats favor Louisiana Tech by 3 points. We call it for the Bulldogs 27-24.
Result:

North Carolina (5.4, 4.8, SoS=7) is favored at home by 11.5 points over North Carolina State (4.8, 4.8, SoS=10)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Tar Heels by 14. We call it 31-17 for North Carolina.
Result:

Northwestern (4.9, 4.9, SoS=70) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Illinois (6.3, 5.2, SoS=57)
Our Call: Our stats make Northwestern a 2 point favorite. We call it 23-21 for the Wildcats.
Result:

Notre Dame (5.3, 4.8, SoS=50) is favored at home by 19.5 points over Syracuse (4.7, 6.1, SoS=43)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Irish by 27 points. We call it 41-14 for Notre Dame.
Result:

Ohio (5.3, 5.2, SoS=98) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Akron (5.9, 5.6, SoS=89)
Our Call: Akron is a 6 point favorite by our stats. We call it 27-21 for the Zips.
Result:

Ohio State (5.4, 4.5, SoS=48) is favored at home by 20.5 points over Michigan (4.5, 5.1, SoS=32)
Our Call: What used to be one of the great games of the year looks like a washout this season as a 9-2 Buckeye team faces a 3-8 Wolverine squad that is hopeless in 2008 and shows no signs of improvement under new coach Rich Rodriguez, whose current season is the worst ever for Michigan football. Our stats make Ohio State a 31 point favorite. We call it 45-14 for Ohio State.
Result:

Oklahoma (7.0, 4.9, SoS=26) is favored at home by 6 points over Texas Tech (7.5, 5.2, SoS=25)
Our Call: Our stats make this game dead even so we go for the home team and call it for Oklahoma 36-35.
Result:

Penn State (6.4, 4.1, SoS=71) is favored at home by 14.5 points over Michigan State (5.1, 5.0, SoS=56)
Our Call: Our stats make the Nittany Lions a 24 point favorite. We call it 38-14 for Penn State.
Result:

Purdue (4.9, 5.3, SoS=24) is favored at home by 13 points over Indiana (5.3, 5.7, SoS=62)
Our Call: Our stats make Purdue a 6 point favorite. We call it 30-24 for Purdue.
Result:

Rice (6.4, 6.5, SoS=94) is favored at home by 8.5 points over Marshall (5.0, 5.3, SoS=99)
Our Call: OUr stats favor Rice by 10 points. We call it 41-31 for Rice.
Result:

Rutgers (5.5, 5.5, SoS=41) is favored at home by 17 points over Army (4.7, 5.3, SoS=95)
Our Call: Rutgers is favored by 17 points by our stats. We call it 34-17 for Rutgers.
Result:

San Diego State (4.7, 6.2, SoS=60) is a 12 point underdog at home to UNLV (5.2, 6.2, SoS=40)
Our Call: Our stats also make San Diego State a 12 point underdog. We go with the better team and call it for UNLV by 13 points 38-25.
Result:

San Jose State (4.6, 4.9, SoS=87) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Fresno State (6.2, 5.9, SoS=86)
Our Call: Our stats favor Fresno State by 5 points. We call it 31-26 for Fresno State.
Result:

South Florida (USF) (5.8, 4.8, SoS=72) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Connecticut (5.3, 4.7, SoS=58)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Bulls by 3 points. We call it 24-21 for South Florida.
Result:

TCU (5.3, 3.8, SoS=65) is favored at home by 18 points over Air Force (5.1, 4.8, SoS=73)
Our Call: Our stats favor TCU by 16 points. We call it 23-7 for TCU.
Result:

Temple (4.6, 5.1, SoS=80) is favored at home by 10.5 points over Eastern Michigan (5.4, 6.4, SoS=100)
Our Call: Our stats favor Temple by 12 points. We call it 26-14 for Temple.
Result:

Toledo (5.3, 5.5, SoS=76) is favored at home by 3 points over Miami of Ohio (4.7, 5.9, SoS=93)
Our Call: Our stats favor Toledo by 13 points. We call it 36-23 for Toledo.
Result:

Troy State (5.6, 4.4, SoS=113) is favored at home by 8 points over Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) (6.8, 6.2, SoS=118)
Our Call: Troy State led LSU 31-3 last week but then started to play too carefully. Either you play aggressively to win and keep attacking or you lose. That's just the way it is. He who plays safe is not playing safe. Our stats favor Troy by 10 points, as long as poor coaching does not give the game away at the end. We call it for Troy 38-28.
Result:

Tulsa (7.8, 6.0, SoS=114) is favored at home by 28.5 points over Tulane (5.2, 6.0, SoS=90)
Our Call: The Tulsa bubble burst last week in a devastating 70-30 loss to Houston for which there really was no excuse, as the Golden Hurricane was bogged down my multitudinous mistakes and turnovers. When things like that happen that badly for the entire team, you should check extraneous factors, like travel arrangements, acomodations, food and curfews, etc. In this game both teams have woeful defenses with Tulsa sporting the far better offense. Our stats favors Tulsa by 42 points. We call it 69-27 for Tulsa.
Result:

UAB (5.7, 7.1, SoS=116) is a 6.5 point underdog at home to East Carolina (5.0, 5.0, SoS=77)
Our Call: Our stats make East Carolina a 22 point favorite. We call it 42-20 for East Carolina.
Result:

Utah (5.7, 4.5, SoS=67) is favored at home by 6.5 points over Brigham Young (BYU) (6.4, 5.1, SoS=84)
Our Call: Our stats make Utah a 6.3 point favorite over BYU. We call it 23-17 for Utah.
Result:

Vanderbilt (4.5, 5.0, SoS=14) is favored at home by 3 points over Tennessee (4.5, 4.2, SoS=28)
Our Call: By net average yards per play allowed on defense, the Vols are 4th in the nation tied with Alabama. It is their anemic offense - tied nationally for 109th place out of 120 teams with Duke, Michigan, Vanderbilt and Wyoming - that has cost outgoing head coach Phillip Fulmer, who won the first BCS championship, his job at the end of this season. But it is his own fault, no one elses - he is the head coach. It is his job to see to it that the offense functions and that he has the players to have it function. You can not win consistently on defense alone. Our stats make Vanderbilt a 1.7 point favorite at home, but we think that the Vols will win this one because Vandy has an equally anemic offense, while Tennessee has the better defense. We call it 20-17 for Tennessee.
Result:

Virginia (4.7, 5.1, SoS=2) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Clemson (5.5, 4.6, SoS=17)
Our Call: Our stats make Clemson a 7 point favorite. We call it for Clemson 24-17.
Result:

Virginia Tech (4.6, 5.0, SoS=13) is favored at home by 17 points over Duke (4.5, 5.5, SoS=3)
Our Call: Our stats favor Virginia Tech by 11 points. We call it 28-17 for the Hokies.
Result:

Wake Forest (4.4, 4.8, SoS=5) is favored at home by 2 points over Boston College (4.8, 4.5, SoS=49)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Eagles by 1.4 points. We call it 17-16 for Boston College.
Result:

Washington State (3.8, 6.8, SoS=42) is a 7.5 point underdog at home to Washington (4.1, 6.6, SoS=8)
Our Call: In a battle of two of the very worst teams in Division I-A FBS football, our stats favor the winless Huskies over the Cougars by 3 points. We call it 27-24 for Washington.
Result:

Wyoming (4.5, 4.7, SoS=78) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to Colorado State (5.5, 6.2, SoS=38)
Our Call: Our stats make Wyoming a 3 point favorite. We call it 20-17 for the Cowboys.
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on November 18, 2008 (boomark / email).