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YPPSYS College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 14 - Week and Thanksgiving Weekend of Saturday, November 29, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

Last week we went 35-12 in calling the winner of the game and 26-19-2 against the point spread. Our record for the season is 592-187 in calling the winner and 282-259-9 against the spread. We are beating almost all systems listed at the College Football Prediction Tracker. Here are our predictions for the current week which features a number of games important for conference championships.

YPPSYS (tm) College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 14 - Week and Thanksgiving Weekend of Saturday, November 29, 2008. Odds are taken from the 9:47 A.M. version of the College Football Prediction Tracker from Tuesday, November 25, 2008. We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Net average yards per play offense and defense are taken according to CFBSTATS.COM

SoS = Massey Ratings Strength of Schedule

For this week, we calculate an average home field advantage of 2.5 points pursuant to the Sagarin calculation at USA Today .

(The game score prediction formula is:
NAYPPA (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage or Disadvantage between team offenses and team defenses) x 9, adjusted by the net difference in the strength of schedule as divided by 10, plus or minus the home field advantage in points, minus 2 points per loss per team, minus 1 point for a defense averaging 5.0 yards per play or worse or minus 2 points for a defense averaging 6.0 yards per play or worse, etc. Thus far this year, the median net average yards per play for a team in Division IA FBS college football is 5.4 on offense, and 5.3 on defense - exactly the same as the previous season). We would also ultimately like to include a MOV (margin of victory) variable in our calculations, but this is not yet implemented.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Northern Illinois (5.5, 5.1, SoS=113) is favored at home by 3 points over Navy (5.7, 5.8, SoS=69)
Our Call: These are both rushing teams, which works in the favor of Navy, who are 2nd in the nation in rushing but have a woeful pass defense. Navy averages about .4 yards per play better on rushing defense than the Huskies and about .9 yards per play better on rushing offense. Northern Illinois has one of the worst passing offenses in the country. Our own stats favor Northern Illinois by 1 point, but if rushing is the name of the game, this favors Navy. We thus call the game for Navy by 4 points, 35-31.
Result: Navy won 16-0.
Our prediction record this week thus far: 1-0 in calling the winner, 1-0 against the spread.

Ball State (7.1, 5.2, SoS=119) is favored at home by 10.5 points over Western Michigan (6.2, 5.5, SoS=110)
Our Call: If Ball State wins this game, it will win the West Division of the Mid-American Conference championship outright. If it loses, there is a three-way tie with Central Michigan and Western Michigan. One should not forget that Western Michigan is itself a 9-2 team with an excellent quarterback who could give the Cardinals fits, so caution is advised, and an upset would not surprise us. Our own stats make Ball State the favorite by 16 points and so we call it 49-33 for Ball State.
Result: Ball State won 45-22 to finish an undefeated 12-0 in its regularly scheduled 2008 season, although the "regular" season still has the MAC championship game forthcoming.
Our prediction record this week thus far: 2-0 in calling the winner, 2-0 against the spread.

Thursday, November 27, 2008 (Thanksgiving Day)

Texas (6.5, 5.3, SoS=1) is favored at home by 35 points over Texas A&M (5.3, 6.3, SoS=32)
Our Call:
Result: Our stats favor the Longhorns by 36 points. We call it 49-13 for Texas.

Friday, November 28, 2008 (Thanksgiving Day Weekend)

Eastern Michigan (5.4, 6.4, SoS=104) is the underdog at home by 10 points to visiting Central Michigan (5.5, 6.2, SoS=82)
Our Call: Our stats make Central Michigan a 12.8 point favorite. We call it 38-25 for the Chippewas.
Result:

Pittsburgh (5.4, 5.1, SoS=34) is the underdog at home by 3.5 points to visiting West Virginia (5.8, 4.5, SoS=42)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Mountaineers by 5.6 points. We call it 27-21 for West Virginia.
Result:

Miami of Ohio (4.6, 6.1, SoS=99) at home is seen as even with visiting Ohio (5.3, 5.1, SoS=94)
Our Call: Our stats favor Ohio by 15 points. We call it 35-20 for the Bobcats.
Result:

Mississippi (6.0, 4.9, SoS=22) is favored at home by 14 points over Mississippi State (4.5, 5.0, SoS=45)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Rebels by 24 points. We call it 31-7 for Mississippi.
Result:

East Carolina (5.0, 5.0, SoS=80) is favored at home by 5.5 points over UTEP (5.9, 6.7, SoS=91)
Our Call: We favor the Pirates by 12.4 points and call the game for East Carolina 33-21.
Result:

Temple (4.7, 5.2, SoS=84) is favored at home by 2.5 points over Akron (5.8, 5.6, SoS=95)
Our Call: We favor Akron by 4.7 points and call the game for the Zips 31-26.
Result:

Buffalo (5.5, 5.8, SoS=83) is favored at home by 9.5 points over Kent State (5.8, 5.9, SoS=118)
Our Call: We favor Buffalo by 10.6 points and call the game for the Bulls 31-20.
Result:

Arkansas (5.4, 5.7, SoS=19) is the underdog at home by 4.5 points to visiting LSU (5.5, 5.0, SoS=21)
Our Call: We favor LSU by 10 points over the Razorbacks and call the game for the Tigers 31-21.
Result:

Toledo (5.5, 5.4, SoS=88) is the underdog at home by 2 points to visiting Bowling Green (5.1, 5.2, SoS=100)
Our Call: OUr stats make the Rockets favorites by 1.6 points and we call it 26-24 for Toledo.
Result:

Nebraska (6.6, 5.8, SoS=9) is favored at home by 17 points over Colorado (4.4, 5.5, SoS=16)
Our Call: Our stats make the Huskers 24 point favorites over the Buffaloes and we call it for the Cornhuskers 48-24.
Result:

Boise State (6.5, 4.2, SoS=103) is favored at home by 21 points over Fresno State (6.0, 5.7, SoS=90)
Our Call: We favor Boise State by 27 points over the Bulldogs and call it for the Broncos 41-14.
Result:

Arizona State (5.2, 4.9, SoS=65) is favored at home by 10 points over UCLA (4.3, 5.2, SoS=64)
Our Call: Our stats favor Arizona State by 8.8 points. We call it 23-14 for the Sun Devils over the Bruins.
Result:

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Alabama (5.7, 4.2, SoS=41) is favored at home by 14 points over Auburn (4.6, 4.8, SoS=67)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Crimson Tide by 31 points. We call it 38-7 for Alabama.
Result:

Boston College (4.6, 4.4, SoS=30) is favored at home by 7 points over Maryland (5.5, 5.1, SoS=27)
Our Call: We favor the Eagles by 2 points 21-19.
Result:

Central Florida (UCF) (3.6, 4.7, SoS=86) is favored at home by 8.5 points over UAB (5.6, 6.8, SoS=112)
Our Call: OUr stats favor UCF by 7.9 points. We call it for UCF 28-20.
Result:

Cincinnati (5.6, 4.7, SoS=44) is favored at home by 21.5 points over Syracuse (4.7, 6.0, SoS=40)
Our Call: Our stats favor Cincinnati by 35 points and we call it 45-10 for the Bearcats.
Result:

Clemson (5.2, 4.5, SoS=11) is favored at home by 1 point over South Carolina (4.8, 4.6, SoS=15)
Our Call: Our stats favor Clemson by 9 points and we call it 23-14 for Clemson.
Result:

Duke (4.3, 5.4, SoS=2) is the underdog at home by 8.5 points to visiting North Carolina (5.3, 4.9, SoS=7)
Our Call: We favor the Tar Heels by 17 points and call it 24-7 for North Carolina.
Result:

Florida Atlantic (5.8, 5.6, SoS=106) is favored at home by 4.5 points over Florida International (4.7, 5.0, SoS=105)
Our Call: We favor Florida Atlantic by 7 points and call the game 31-24 for the Owls.
Result:

Florida State (5.7, 4.5, SoS=26) is the underdog at home by 16.5 points to visiting Florida (7.3, 4.4, SoS=17)
Our Call: Our stats favor Florida by 17 points and we call it for the Gators 34-17.
Result:

Georgia (6.7, 5.0, SoS=8) is favored at home by 8 points over Georgia Tech (6.1, 4.5, SoS=24)
Our Call: We favor Georgia by 6 points 33-27.
Result:

Hawaii (5.4, 5.4, SoS=70) is favored at home by 29.5 points over Washington State (3.9, 6.6, SoS=73)
Our Call: Our stats favor Hawaii by 36 points, so that we call it for the Warriors 57-21.
Result:

Louisiana Tech (5.1, 5.4, SoS=97) is the underdog at home by 4 points to visiting Nevada (6.7, 5.7, SoS=76)
Our Call: Our stats favor Nevada by 9 points and we call the game for the Wolf Pack 37-28.
Result:

Marshall (4.9, 5.4, SoS=87) is the underdog at home by 14 points to visiting Tulsa (7.8, 5.8, SoS=115)
Our Call: Our stats favor Tulsa by 27 points so that we call it for the Golden Hurricane 51-24.
Result:

Memphis (5.6, 6.0, SoS=108) is favored at home by 13.5 points over Tulane (5.1, 6.3, SoS=85)
Our Call: We favor Memphis by 13 points 40-27.
Result:

Missouri (7.3, 5.2, SoS=38) is favored at home by 14 points over Kansas (5.9, 5.5, SoS=18)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Tigers by 21 points so that we call the game for Missouri 45-24.
Result:

North Carolina State (5.0, 5.6, SoS=5) is the underdog at home by 1.5 points to visiting Miami of Florida (5.0, 4.7, SoS=12)
Our Call: North Carolina State has beaten Wake Forest and demolished North Carolina in its last two games, and with its earlier wins over Duke and East Carolina is the undisputed champion of the State of North Carolina this year, even though it is the cellar dwellar in the Atlantic division of this year's wild ACC conference champion race. The clue is that the Wolfpack does well against teams that have a weak offense because its own defense is otherwise shaky, so it has a good chance to beat the Hurricanes, whose offense ranks near 100th in Division I-A FBS. Nevertheless, our stats make Miami the favorite by 9 points so that we call it 23-14 for the Hurricanes.
Result:

North Texas (5.0, 7.3, SoS=107) is the underdog at home by 20 points to visiting Arkansas State (6.2, 5.2, SoS=116)
Our Call: Our stats make the Indians 36 point favorites over the Mean Green so that we call it for Arkansas State 49-13.
Result:

Oklahoma State (7.2, 5.3, SoS=33) is the underdog at home by 7 points to visiting Oklahoma (7.1, 4.9, SoS=6)
Our Call: This could be a great game as our stats make the Sooners only a 4-point favorite over the Cowboys which is not much of a margin. Both teams have immensely dangerous offenses and good defenses. In fact, in a direct matchup of Oklahoma State with Alabama, currently ranked Number One without much justification, our stats would in fact favor Oklahoma State. We call it 35-31 for Oklahoma, which- for the BCS standings - has the advantage over Texas and Texas Tech of playing 11th-ranked Oklahoma State in this, its final regular season game. A win should push it past Texas and Texas Tech into the conference championship game against Missouri.
Result:

Oregon State (5.8, 4.7, SoS=31) is favored at home by 3 points over Oregon (6.2, 4.8, SoS=71)
Our Call: If Oregon State beats Oregon, the 3-loss Beavers, who already lost to Penn State 45-14 in the regular season, will go to the Rose Bowl to again face that same team. If Oregon wins, presuming that USC beats UCLA in its season finale, which is hardly in doubt, then the Trojans will represent the Pac 10 at Pasadena, with thanks to the Ducks. Who really wants to see an Oregon State vs. Penn State rematch in the Rose Bowl? We do not. On the other hand, USC could then be a free BCS team matched with probably one of the top Big 12 teams, which would make for a great game. Our stats favor the Beavers by 4 points and so we call it 27-23 for Oregon State.
Result:

Rice (6.3, 6.2, SoS=101) is the underdog at home by 3 points to visiting Houston (7.2, 5.5, SoS=102)
Our Call: Two high octane offenses meet with Houston sporting the much better defense, as their 70-30 win over Tulsa proved. Our stats favor the Cougars by 11 points, so that we call the game for Houston, 55-44.
Result:

SMU (5.6, 6.6, SoS=81) is the underdog at home by 13.5 points to visiting Southern Miss (5.7, 5.7, SoS=93)
Our Call: Our stats make SMU a 13.7 point underdog to Southern Miss. We call it 48-34 for Southern Miss.
Result:

Tennessee (4.4, 4.1, SoS=25) is favored at home by 4.5 points over Kentucky (4.6, 5.1, SoS=52)
Our Call: Our stats favor the Vols by 7 points in Knoxville 17-10.
Result: Tennessee currently sports the nation's 3rd best defense as judged by net average yards allowed per play, but is also tied for the nation's 8th worst offense as judged by net average yards gained per play. The coaching staff can not allow teams to have such great discrepancies between the offensive and defensive units. Besides, in this day of modern high octane offenses, one has to keep up or be left behind.

Texas Tech (7.3, 5.5, SoS=10) is favored at home by 20 points over Baylor (5.9, 5.3, SoS=14)
Our Call: Art Briles, the new head coach at Baylor, has made great strides, but it is doubtful that the team's improvement is big enough to be any kind of a threat to the Red Raiders, who will be looking to pile up points in an attempt to impress bowl officials. Our stats favor Texas Tech by 24 points, so that we call it 52-28 for the Red Raiders against the Bears.
Result:

USC (6.7, 3.5, SoS=36) is favored at home by 30.5 points over Notre Dame (5.2, 4.8, SoS=62)
Our Call: By our stats, in spite of its freak loss to Oregon State, USC is the best team in the country, just an edge ahead of Florida. Those same stats favor the Trojans by 37 points over this Irish team which lost to Syracuse last week. We call it 44-7 for Southern Cal.
Result:

Utah State (5.1, 6.0, SoS=35) is favored at home by 6 points over New Mexico State (5.5, 5.7, SoS=98)
Our Call: Our stats make New Mexico State a 1 point favorite. We call it 28-27 for the Aggies.
Result:

Virginia Tech (4.6, 4.9, SoS=13) is favored at home by 8 points over Virginia (4.6, 4.9, SoS=3)
Our Call: These teams with weak offenses and good defenses are about as evenly matched as they can be with the Hokies favored in this game only because of the home field advantage. We call it 21-17 for Virginia Tech.
Result:

Wake Forest (4.3, 4.7, SoS=4) is favored at home by 3.5 points over Vanderbilt (4.3, 4.9, SoS=20)
Our Call: Two teams with anemic offenses and good defenses meet in this matchup of the SEC and the ACC. Our stats favor Wake Forest by 6 and we call it for the Demon Deacons over the Commodores 20-14.
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on November 25, 2008 (boomark / email).