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After Super Tuesday

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Unlike the entire world apparently, I see last night's results as the beginning of the end for the Obama Presidential campaign. My thinking is fairly straightforward - Obama's has been a Media and Mo campaign to knock off the resilient favorite. He has had a ten day stretch that is not likely to be matched again. From the Media coverage of the South Carolina primary, to the Kennedy endorsements, to polls showing him with a REAL chance of winning states like Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, this was a perfect storm for the Obama campaign. If he could have won Massachusetts and either New Jersey or California, he would have gained a stranglehold on the nomination. And not only did he not win any of those states, he got clobbered in all of them.

What does this bode for the rest of the schedule? IMO, more of the same. Obama will win states with the right demographic but lose the big states by large margins. What is going to happen to push Obama to victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the 3 biggest prizes remaining? Can a nominee lose New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida and Michigan by wide margins?

More . . .

For that is what is being posited here as the Obama case. Because he won states like Delaware, Connecticut, North Dakota and Idaho, Obama's spinners are claiming he had a big night. I simply do not see how that can be. What last night revealed is no amount of spin, mo, Media and endorsements can get Obama over the hump in big heterogenuous states. Indeed, his performance in the big states has underperformed polls and expectations.

Tom Edsall writes:

Hillary Clinton's strength among core Democratic constituencies -- women, Latinos and working class whites -- pushed her to victory in the mega-state primaries of California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts on Tuesday, slowing, at least for the moment, the momentum that had been building behind Barack Obama's bid for the nomination. Clinton's solid majorities among women, who make up from 55 to 59 percent of voters in Democratic primaries, remains her most reliable source of support, although her backing among Latino voters not only helped her win California, but should work to her advantage in the potentially crucial March 4 Texas primary. . . .

The dynamics of this race are now set in stone. No amount of Media and Mo and Kennedys can get Obama over the hump. He can not win women, Latinos, older voters and lower income non-African Americans. The Obama coalition is simply not enough. I discussed this problem for the past month.

The bottom line is nothing has changed from Nevada. Obama can not break through. He will not be the Presidential nominee. He will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

[Update (TL): Comments over 225, now closing.]

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 06, 2008 (boomark / email).