Legal Commentary

PA, OH, MI and FL

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Josh Marshall notes the obvious point to be drawn from these Survey USA polls:

The answers? Shockingly obvious: McCain crushes both (Hillary by 20%, Barack by 24%) Democrats in Alabama, while both crush him in California. To add another layer of symmetry, Clinton does 4 points better in losing in Alabama. And Obama does 4 points better in winning California.

For all the talk of 50 state strategies, this general election will be won or lost in the same states as in 2000 and 2004 - Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. While Obama may win Virginia and Iowa, that equals 19 electoral votes. He ain't winning in the South. Neither is Hillary, except for Arkansas.

It is great that Obama has energized Dems in Utah, Idaho and Alabama, but that is not going to be where he will be fighting in a general election. Which is why it would be nice if Obama could demonstrate an ability to win a big contested state like Ohio or Pennsylvania in the primaries. This is still where Presidential elections are won or lost.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 24, 2008 (boomark / email).