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Changing Theories on the AQAP Failed IED Attack on Saudi Prince

By Jeralyn

Experts are now questioning prior accounts of the August 28, 2009 failed IED assassination attempt by a suicide bomber on Saudi prince Prince Mohammed bin Nayef.

AQAP quickly claimed control of the attack. It was believed that the suicide bomber, Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, had hidden the bomb in his anal cavity, and that it was activated by remote control cell phone signals. Here's a pretty good Stratford account.

The video above, which shows a happy al-Asiri describing the attempt ahead of time, also contains the cell phone call that occurred during al-Asiri's meeting with the prince 14 seconds before the bomb went off (killing only al-Asiri), and explains the then widely-accepted version of how it went down. [More...]

The U.S. was well aware of the failed attempt right after it happened because we got a briefing from the Saudis. The whole world was aware because it was a big deal in the media.

As for the statement by AQAP taking responsibility for the Saudi attempt, from the same Stratford article:

Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, who was on the list of 85 wanted persons, was able, with the help of God, to enter Nayef’s palace as he was among his guards and detonate an explosive device. No one will be able to know the type of this device or the way it was detonated. Al-Asiri managed to pass all the security checkpoints in Najran and Jeddah airports and was transported on board Mohammed bin Nayef’s private plane.”

Now, the version is changing in an effort to tie the assassination attempt to Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab and his failed bomb attempt on the Xmas day flight to Detroit.

Via Newsweek:

Saudi officials initially thought the bomb had been secreted in the operative's anal cavity. But after investigating the matter more thoroughly, they concluded it had likely been sewn into his underwear, thereby allowing the operative to bypass security checks before his meeting with the prince. A main purpose of Nayef's briefing for Brennan was to alert U.S. officials to the use of the underwear technique.

U.S. officials now suspect that Nayef's attempted assassin and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian suspect aboard the Northwest flight, had the same bomb maker in Yemen, intelligence experts tell NEWSWEEK.

There was no way to determine what substance was in al-Asiri's device. But, now they think it was PETN, just like Abdulmatallab used.

The Saudi government has not yet released a final report on the incident, but the early explanation that Al Asiri had a bomb hidden in his rectum and that was somehow exploded by a cellphone signal has been discarded, Saudi and foreign sources say. Instead, it is now believed he too had PETN hidden in his underwear.

Al-Asiri was not a neophyte recruit. He was on the Saudi's top list of 85 militants. He was meeting with the Prince to surrender himself and make amends. The Prince was very involved in the Saudi rehab program and often met with the ones who surrendered.

Al-Asiri was able to avoid some airport security because he had been flown in on the Prince's jet. He spent 30 hours at the Palace before being brought in to see the Prince. He was subjected to security searches, just not intrusive ones.

Al-Asiri's bomb was assembled and installed an ready to go when he got to the Palace. Abdulmatallab had to put his together in the airplane bathroom, and he had a syringe as a detonator, there was no remote control.

Some say al-Asiri was a test run for Abdulmatallab. He may have been, but our intelligence agencies knew all about the attempt, so I'm not sure what about it, including the theory change, would link him specifically to the known information about Abdulmutallab.

Newsweek seems to be saying that when Brennan got his briefing, it was as to the change in theory, from anal cavity to underwear. So I guess there's a question of whether he shared the information. But I'm not seeing what difference it would have made whether the bomb was in al-Asiri's underwear or anal cavity with respect to Abdulmutallab. It still had to be set off by remote control, and that alone makes it far different than Abdulmutallab's attempt.

Maybe I'm just being cynical, but I have to wonder: Is this news to get us ready for the whole body imagers the TSA is going to order en masse? To justify spending hoards of money on counterterrorism and intelligence efforts in Yemen, so they can do things like identify the bomb-maker, but not developmental aid or assistance for their rehab program for repatriated prisoners? Or something else? It's just too convenient that the change of theory for al-Asiri comes to light in the media when they're on the ropes about Abdulmutallab.

On a related note, Newsweek reports Obama did ramp up efforts in Yemen after the failed attack on the Prince and the briefing, which included forensics, that White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan received from the Saudis.

White House officials say President Obama has been keenly focused on the Qaeda threat from Yemen for months. As the NEWSWEEK story reports, the president has authorized a covert war in the country: when Yemeni jets bombed Qaeda targets on Dec. 17 and 24 (including a strike that tried, but failed, to kill al-Awlaki), the United States supplied intelligence, missiles, and military support. American spies and special forces are on the ground, assisting the Yemenis.

Regarding those strikes, the LA Times reports we gave Yemen the information via NSA surveillance:

Just before Christmas, U.S. intelligence analysts listening in on Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen intercepted communications indicating a gathering of the masterminds of the Yemen network, who were discussing several imminent suicide bombings against Western targets in that country.

The intercepts gave analysts the tip they had been waiting months for, and Yemen launched an attack, killing as many as 30 suspected militants. Top leaders and Awlaki, however, apparently survived.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on January 03, 2010 (boomark / email).