Federal Judiciary

Buckeyes on the Prize -- By: Jim Geraghty

If you sent a nice arrangement of flowers and a sympathy note to the Ohio Republican party after the elections of 2006 and 2008, you were gracious and not exaggerating by much.

If the party wasn?t dead, it had suffered one of the steepest drops in recent memory. The Ohio GOP had seen its high-water mark in 2004, with Republicans holding all six statewide executive offices, two-thirds majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both seats in the U.S. Senate, and twelve of the state?s 18 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. And, of course, Ohio?s electoral votes were decisive in securing President Bush?s second term.

In 2006, Democrats won the governor?s mansion and four of the other statewide offices, the U.S. Senate seat of Republican Mike DeWine, and the U.S. House seat of the scandal-plagued Bob Ney. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by nearly 300,000 votes (5 percent), and three U.S. House seats flipped from Republican to Democratic; what?s more, a voting shift driven by the Obama turnout gave Democrats a 53-46 majority in the state house.

During this time -- the era of casualties in Iraq, Harriet Miers, Hurricane Katrina, and the Abramoff scandal -- the GOP also suffered miserable slides in other states, like Indiana, New Hampshire, and Colorado. But Ohio Republicans? woes seemed much more self-inflicted. Besides Ney?s scandal, Gov. Bob Taft was charged with four misdemeanors for failing to disclose golf outings paid for by lobbyists and about 50 gifts estimated to be worth a total of about $5,800. As if this weren?t enough, the party as a whole became defined by a classic what-the-hell-were-they-thinking scandal when it was revealed that the Ohio Bureau of Workers? Compensation had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in unusual and rather risky investments, including rare coins. These investments were run by GOP donors and others with ties to the state party. The bizarre decision led to a criminal probe when it was revealed that millions of dollars? worth of rare coins were missing. Independents and non-diehard Republicans could be forgiven for thinking that it was time for a change, time to give the other side a shot.

GOVERNOR
Ohioans? collective sentiment of ?enough? led to the election of Democrat Ted Strickland as governor. Three years later, the case against the incumbent almost writes itself. As a candidate, he pledged to rescue the state?s economy; as recently as 2007, his staff was declaring, ?One of the primary reasons Gov. Strickland ran for governor was to create jobs in Ohio.? Unfortunately for both the governor and the state, Ohio?s unemployment rate has nearly doubled since Strickland took office; it hit 11.1 percent in July, and today is at 10.6 percent. For much of last year, Ohio?s rate has been worse than that of neighboring West Virginia.

Strickland?s term has been troubled on other fronts. In October 2008 news surfaced that Democratic political appointees in Ohio?s Department of Job and Family Services had used state time and resources to look into the personal files of Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, the 2008 campaign?s famous ?Joe the Plumber,? in state child-support databases. Strickland?s initial response was a one-month suspension of the head of the department, Helen Jones-Kelley; eventually Jones-Kelley resigned. The state GOP has made an issue of Strickland?s awkward laugh in response to a query about how he was going to deal with growing corruption scandals in Cuyahoga County.

Strickland?s situation closely resembles that of New Jersey?s departing governor, Jon Corzine. Like Strickland, Corzine had pledged a slew of reforms and a better life for his state?s citizens; in the end, millions of dollars of campaign mudslinging couldn?t save him when the consensus answer to the question, ?Are you better off now than you were four years ago?? was an overwhelming No. Strickland and his defenders will argue that he isn?t single-handedly responsible for the state?s economic woes (one of Corzine?s defenses, as well), but he?ll have a hard time arguing that he has succeeded in mitigating the recession, barring a sudden and dramatic hiring spree in the Buckeye State.

The expected GOP challenger to Strickland is a familiar face to many Republicans: former House Budget Committee chairman John Kasich, a onetime presidential candidate and former host of a weekend show on Fox News. In Congress, Kasich was an earnest, knowledgeable, and often funny speaker, but as a gubernatorial candidate, he is demonstrating political skill at a new level. In 2007, he began touring the state and speaking at county Lincoln Day dinners, and generally wowing crowds of the faithful. After he addressed the Ashbrook Center in Ashland this November, executive director Peter Schramm gushed, ?To say that John Kasich?s talk at the Center was well received is an understatement. To say that it was one of the finest talks ever given by a politician is even more of an understatement.?

It?s easy to shrug at rave reviews from the party faithful, but Jon Keeling, an Ohio-politics guru and former Kasich staffer who writes the blog Third Base Politics, argues that it will matter on election day: ?These are Party leaders, grassroots coordinators, fundraisers and combinations thereof. The very people that need to be inspired to work hard to make sure victory is assured in November. It would be easy to say that these people can be counted on already. There is no need to waste time courting folks that will already help you, just as they help each campaign cycle, right? But as a campaign veteran I can tell you there is a ginormous difference between Party activists who feel obligated to help you and Party activists that WANT to help you.?

Strickland?s lead has steadily eroded since the beginning of 2009, and in an early-December Rasmussen poll Kasich led by 9 percentage points.

SENATOR
Republican senator George Voinovich is retiring, creating an open-seat race that is expected to be competitive. The most likely candidate on the Republican side is Rob Portman, who served as a member of Congress for twelve years, and for a year each as U.S. trade representative and as head of the Office of Management and Budget in the Bush administration. Republicans in Washington, D.C., are ebullient about his chances; he has the largest campaign chest, at $5.1 million, of any Republican running this year, and he has raised $1.3 million in just the last quarter. He?ll have a primary fight before he gets the nomination, however, from car dealer Tom Ganley.

Portman modestly leads the two highest-profile Democrats competing for the seat, both office-holders in the Ohio state government, Lieut. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Besides the usual dangers of a divisive primary, Brunner has already handed her primary- and general-election foes a handy issue, completely flip-flopping on Afghanistan in a matter of months.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats think they can use Portman?s service in the Bush administration against him; Fisher is already calling him ?one of the architects of the very policies that undermined our economy and shattered the dreams of millions of people.? Whether the ritualized invocation of the Bush bogeyman will drown out Portman?s ideas -- like a one-year suspension of the state payroll tax -- remains to be seen.

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
There are likely to be at least four competitive House races in Ohio this year: a 1st District rematch between incumbent Democrat Steve Driehaus and Republican Steve Chabot, the former representative who lost to Driehaus in 2008; a 15th  District rematch between incumbent Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and Republican Steve Stivers, who unsuccessfully challenged her in 2008; the 16th District race, where incumbent Democrat John Boccieri will face either businessman Jim Renacci or Matt Miller, the runner-up in the 2008 GOP primary; and the 18th District race, in which Democratic incumbent Zack Space will face off against either State Sen. Bob Gibbs or 2008 nominee Fred Dailey.

?In most of the country, health care is the big vote,? says one Washington Republican watching these races closely. ?But in that whole Midwestern and Appalachian area, cap-and-trade is the key vote.?

This Republican notes that the state?s 2006 and 2008 elections were determined by two powerful waves, more than the particular flaws of the losing GOP candidates that year: an anti-corruption wave in 2006 and the excitement and enthusiasm for Obama in 2008. He suspects that 2010 could very well be another powerful-wave year, but in the other direction.

With the sheer number of competitive races next year, the Buckeye State will be one of the nation?s most fiercely contested political battlefields. ?I feel a little bad for Ohioans, with all the ads they?re going to be subjected to,? he laments.

-- Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on January 05, 2010 (boomark / email).