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UPDATED - John Kasich Brewing Up an Electoral Disaster

By The Pullins Group LLC

FIRST UPDATE:  BASED UPON WHAT I'M BEING TOLD OFF THE RECORD BY SOURCES CLOSE TO THE CANDIDATE, MY CASH ON HAND NUMBERS FOR THE KASICH CAMPAIGN ARE WAY OFF.  IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN THAT'S CERTAINLY GREAT NEWS FOR THEM.  HOWEVER, UNTIL I GET A CONFIRMATION THAT I CAN PRINT, OR REVIEW THE FILING DUE ON JANUARY 31ST WE WON'T KNOW FOR SURE.

Ohio Republican Chairman Kevin DeWine should be a very happy man.  He's recruited strong candidates for statewide offices in 2010, the Ohio House is within reach, Ted Strickland just raised income taxes, and Democrat polling numbers are dropping faster than Hollywood starlets.

But instead, Kevin faces a brewing electoral disaster named John Kasich.  Let's tick off the ingredients of this foul stew:

1.  Kasich Got Into the Race Too Late.  Apparently in order to continue squeezing Fox News for big paychecks, Kasich waited until May 1, 2009 to open a campaign committee and begin raising funds.  As a result his first campaign finance report showed that Ted Strickland had nine times more funds on hand than Kasich did.  I predict that the next report, which will be filed January 31st, will show Kasich with a little more than $1 million on hand while Strickland has $6 to $8 million on hand.

20 years ago George Voinovich started off his successful 1990 race with less than $1 million on hand.  But that was at a time when individuals could make unlimited contributions and he quickly made up the difference.  16 years ago he started off his successful 1994 re-election campaign with nearly $5 million on hand.  Bob Taft started off his successful 1998 campaign with just over $3 million on hand.  Taft started off his successful 2002 re-election campaign with nearly $6 million on hand.

Kasich is so far emulating the fundraising trainwreck of Ken Blackwell in 2006.  Blackwell started out the year with just $1.3 million on hand while Strickland had around $2.1 million.  After a bruising primary Blackwell simply never caught up.  Kasich won't likely face an expensive primary but he has a far bigger hill than Blackwell had to climb.  Unless he reports having on hand 50% of the money Strickland has, I don't ever see Kasich catching up, and I hear from everywhere that Kasich had a bad fundraising effort over the last six months.  Strike one. 

2.     Kasich's Income Tax Repeal Plan Is Radioactive.  Kasich's only substantial policy idea is to repeal Ohio's state income tax over a ten year period.  Not even when I ran the fiscally conservative Ohio Taxpayers Association did I propose such a radical and unworkable idea.  Heck, even when I was dabbling in that area I suggested at least a twenty year period to gradually phase it out, while increasing state sales taxes.

Kasich has no clue and apparently no intention to either propose spending cuts and/or alternative taxes large enough to make up the $15 billion dollar hole.  Even the very conservative Tax Foundation is only proposing a flat rate income tax, not an outright repeal, which makes far more sense politically and policy wise. 

Ohio voters rejected a repeal of the income tax in 1972 and rejected a repeal of a 90% income tax hike in 1983.  Most of Ohio's business community, including the big trade associations like the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, the Ohio Manufacturers Association, the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, and the Ohio Business Roundtable would all oppose it just like they helped pass this past years income tax increase (delay).  Every group that relies on state funding would oppose this plan.  No group would support it.

The fact is that none of these term-limited political amateurs that are proposing this in the legislature has any clue what a $15 billion hole in the state budget would look like.  How would law and order conservatives feel about closing down every prison in Ohio?  How would fiscal conservatives feel about paying another couple billion in higher local property taxes that are now absorbed by state taxpayers?  What about the $12 billion or so hole that will likely be in the next state budget?

The only entities that would benefit are wealthy individuals and small businesses that are not organized enough and well funded enough to withstand the media and political onslaught this plan will face.  Even if I were still running a statewide taxpayer group I'd be pushing for a flat rate income tax with modest tax cuts that would replace the revenue with higher sales taxes.

Kasich has to abandon this plan and do so quickly.  If not it will drag him down the drain in the coming months.  Strike two.

3.    Mary Taylor for LG Will Cost Us the Apportionment Board.  Apparently to generate some excitement around Kasich, their team continues to float the idea of Mary Taylor leaving the State Auditor race and running with him as his LG.  Jon Husted is considered strong for Secretary of State and Taylor, despite her fundraising problems, is considered a shoo-in for re-election.  Even if Kasich self destructs this would enable Republicans to retain the ability to draw state legislative districts. 

I have no idea how this idea would be a positive for either Kasich or Taylor.  Taylor's fundraising will come around and she and her family always retain the ability to write a large personal check if needed from their family fortune.  But Taylor leaving the Auditor's race has Democrats simply salivating. Bottom line, Taylor leaving the Auditor's race is the only shot Democrats have at gaining control of the Apportionment Board.  Strike three.

Throw in all of these factors along with Kasich's personality issues and I'm wondering how he plans to better Blackwell's 37%.  In fact, the GOP would probably be better off if Blackwell ran again.  He couldn't do any worse than 37% and he can argue that things would have been better if voters had chosen him over Strickland. 

Full post as published by The Pullins Report on January 11, 2010 (boomark / email).