Federal Judiciary

Race-watchers at the state and national levels considered a Beau Biden campaign a near-certainty once the vice president?s seat in the Senate was filled by little-known Biden staffer Ted Kaufman.

Even without the famous name, Beau Biden was a solid candidate -- already elected to statewide office (state attorney general in 2006), he was a captain in the Delaware Army National Guard and served in Iraq.

But the long-awaited announcement#...#didn?t come. As 2009 progressed, the Republicans? best and perhaps only chance to win Biden?s seat, Rep. Mike Castle, took his time in evaluating his chances. Rumors changed by the week until finally, in October, Castle made it official that he was running. Because Delaware has only one congressional district, Castle has been running statewide every two years and remains strongly popular in what is otherwise a deep-blue state. Between his years as governor and his service in the U.S. House, Castle has been in office since January 1985.

Ordinarily, Castle?s entrance would have triggered the younger Biden?s announcement, but#...#it never came. Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, privately assured donors that a Biden run was certain. The Washington Post ran a lengthy piece previewing the race, acknowledging that one of the great match-ups of the 2010 cycle was missing, at least officially, the Democratic competitor: ?Trust me, he?s running is the message Democratic leaders are sending, even as the 40-year-old Biden bides his time. Last week, the vice president hinted to a crowd at a fundraiser in Missouri that his eldest son is in the race.?

On November 10, Beau Biden attended and made brief remarks at the 2009 Delaware Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. In the preceding weeks, it had been rumored that he would make his formal announcement there -- with more than 1,000 Democratic faithful in attendance -- but instead he only presented a local award to a party activist. In retrospect, it was a key indicator.

In December, the questions began to build -- most Senate campaigns start off at least a year ahead of time -- and the DSCC started offering explanations: ??Considering his recent service in Iraq, we understand and appreciate the time he is spending with his family as he makes this determination,? said Eric Schultz, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.?

Week by week, month by month, a routine question grew louder and louder: ?So when?s the announcement??

Comments from just a few weeks ago suggest that few Democrats thought Biden could ultimately decide against a run. As recently as January 7, Menendez was telling reporters, ?Our expectation is that Beau Biden will run,? and unnamed White House officials indicated they were caught off guard by Biden?s decision. Even the older Biden seemed to think that his son would eventually jump in: ?According to a White House aide, ?While the president didn?t call Beau, he and the VP discussed it regularly, as recently as Friday, and the president was very encouraging and asked the VP to pass along to Beau his belief that Beau would win.??

But the fact that the White House felt the need to encourage him should have been a warning sign. Candidates who get their seats gift-wrapped don?t usually wait until January to announce their campaigns. Yes, his current work as attorney general -- including a high-profile case involving a pediatrician accused of sexually assaulting patients -- was taking up much of Biden?s time. But deciding whether to run for this seat had to have been on Beau Biden?s ?to do? list since November 2008. If he was uninterested, he had a solid year to signal to the rest of the party that he didn?t want to do it.

It is worth noting that Castle is running for the final four years of Joe Biden?s term, so, if he wins, he will face reelection in 2014. Castle is 70; he may or may not want to serve another full term. Beau Biden may very well have concluded that 2010 was going to be a tough year and that a better opportunity for the same seat lay only a few years away.

On paper, there are some glimmers of hope for Democrats. The party?s attention quickly focused on New Castle County chief executive Chris Coons as a potential candidate. Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling managed to find a few silver linings: ?Right now voters are very much down on the political establishment. A Castle vs. Biden race would have been establishment vs. establishment. Democrats have an opportunity now to field a candidate who can run more credibly as an outsider against nine term Congressmen Castle than Biden could have.?

But those silver linings surround a big dark cloud for Obama and Senate Democrats; the Cook Political Report is moving the Delaware seat from ?toss-up? to ?solid Republican.?

Political dynasties have hit a rough patch in recent weeks -- the Kennedy family?s endorsement couldn?t save a Democrat in Massachusetts, Sen. Chris Dodd called it quits in Connecticut, and Sen. Evan Bayh is facing his toughest reelection battle in years. Now, after the party did everything it could to ensure that Delaware?s Senate seat was treated as a family heirloom, Beau Biden walks away.

Perhaps Democrats will take a lesson from the Biden debacle: No matter how well-known your last name is, every candidate has to earn it.

-- Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot for NRO.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on January 26, 2010 (boomark / email).