Indiana

Why Bayh Pass?

By Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

I have to give Evan Bayh credit.  He did something no Republican could ever do,  drove himself out of office.   Now granted it was more like walking away, but still the Senator’s decision not to run again has sent shock waves through Indiana’s political landscape like an earthquake through Haiti.

Of course the big question on everyone’s mind is of course,  “why”?  Why step down? Why not run again?  Why put another relatively safe seat at risk of switching political parties?  Bayh said it was because Washington had become too partisan and he just didn’t love Congress anymore.   I don’t doubt it, but Washington had been partisan forever.   I’m not saying Bayh’s answer wasn’t truthful, I just don’t think he wasn’t telling the whole story.    My hypothesis on why the man with $13 million in the bank and internal polls showing a 55-percent re-elect victory  decided to walk away is simple;  the seat was not safe enough.

Feel free to take that in for a second.

Although I don’t have the institutional memory of my other colleagues in the press corps, what I have picked during my tenure here is that Evan Bayh loves two things, his family and a safe bet.   Look at his record as Governor and Senator and words from the Obama administration officials about him never “coloring outside the lines.” Put all that together and what do you get, someone who like a safe bet and sure thing.   And for everyday he stayed in the race, it was his chances got less and less safe and less and less sure.

Was it because he was a Democrat?  Not entirely it was more because he was an incumbent!

An incumbent in this political climate is like me selling bean pies at a KKK rally, the people around you aren’t happy to see you and unless you pull some fancy footwork out of Blazing Saddles, you can forget about ever being seen again.

Now before we go any further, Republicans shouldn’t get too excited, the average national polling data says more people consider themselves independents than Ds or Rs.  Throw in that fact, and voter angst and anger, it makes sense for Bayh to bolt  even though his re-elects were in the mid-50s, Bayh likely wanted what he was used to having; a 60% plus comfortable win.  Unfortunately, he would have to spend a lot of time and almost all his cash just to break even at best.

So what does Bayh do now?  Well,  first make sure your successor is already picked long before you announce you’re stepping down.  Rumor has it 8th District Congressman Brad Ellsworth is the fan favorite.  Replacing him, I hear, would likely be former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg.  (Remember, this is all speculation at this point.)  Also having $13 million in the bank is a nice bit of walking around money to have when times are tight all over and reminding people it’s still your party and they can cry if they want to.  And you can use the cash to build IOUs over time should you decided to get back into politics, say like in 2012.

I’m sure there are a lot of theories about the Senator’s true motivation.   Some good, some the rantings of madmen.   And only a handful people know the whole story, however until something more plausible comes along, this is my story and I’m sticking to it.   At the end of the day Evan Bayh did what Evan Bayh does best, he played it safe and took a pass.

Full post as published by Indiana Barrister on February 16, 2010 (boomark / email).