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As I mentioned this morning, the two likely favorites drew the two worst post positions, the pole and the far outside.  It will be worse for Sidney's Candy, a notable frontrunner, than Luckin At Lucky, who can be rated if he doesn't get boxed as he did in the Santa Anita Derby.  That said, trip is everything in the cattle call that is the twenty horse start of the Derby.  I still think either or both of these horses should be there coming down the home stretch, but there are two relative longshots that have a real opportunity here.  One, the unknown winner of the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, Stately Victor, is rumored to be an excellent performer on a off track.  I say rumored to be as he is the only horse not to workout at Churchill Downs.  All of his workouts were at the Downs owned training facility Trackside, which is also a marvelously downscale OTB facility.  Stately Victor is owned by the Attorney General of Kentucky who is running for the US Senate and is named for his deceased best friend.  It will be a true Kentucky moment for a state constitutional officer to receive the Derby trophy from another (the Governor). 

The other relative long-shot is Ice Box.  His odds won't be nearly as long as Stately Victor, more in the 10-1 or 15-1 range, but the Florida Derby winner is getting no pre-race attention.  He has won all of his races at distances longer than a mile and should have no trouble with the Derby distance.  His late running style should keep him out of trouble as the pack slips and slides through the backstretch. The track footing may be an issue for him as he is a famously late closer but should he not have any trouble with his footing look for a late surge around horses and down the stretch.  

So, there you have it.  My four horse exacta box.  I may add to it tomorrow but as of now, that's what it looks like:  1-2-6-20.

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