Federal Judiciary

Tim Burns's Hail Mary Pass -- By: Robert Costa

Western Pennsylvania is a breeding ground for strong-armed quarterbacks. Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Dan Marino all come from the region. So it?s fitting that Tim Burns, the GOP candidate to succeed the late Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania?s 12th congressional district, is looking to complete his own Hail Mary pass on May 18 -- looking, that is, to become the first Republican to represent the sprawling, rural district since Nixon?s second term.

?It?s critical that we win this seat,? Burns, 42, tells National Review Online. ?If Republicans can win this upcoming special election, it will definitely bode well for the party?s momentum as we move toward November.?

Recent polls show Burns surging. A Research 2000 poll has him ahead by six points. A Public Policy Polling survey shows him leading by three. Still, Burns admits that he faces an uphill climb heading into the campaign?s final days. PA 12 is chock full of Democrats, he points out; they have a significant edge in voter registration. Jimmy Carter won in this region twice. So did Bill Clinton.

Burns?s Democratic opponent, Mark Critz, 48, is a former Murtha staffer running with his old boss?s ghost and, uncomfortably, with the Obama agenda. The president, according to Research 2000, holds a 38 percent favorable rating with locals. ?In many ways this is a legacy campaign,? says Dr. G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College. ?It?s also a referendum on the Obama administration, writ large. A defeat here has national ramifications for the Democrats. It?s what political scientists call a ?big wave? election.?

?This race is no longer about John Murtha,? Burns argues. ?My opponent is trying to run on his legacy, but no one can walk in John Murtha?s shoes. He was chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. The people here are smart. They know that whomever they vote for won?t be John Murtha and won?t get a seat at that table. So that makes this race about jobs, about the future, about energy and other issues -- not about Murtha. We have to be willing to look past that.?

PA 12 is coal country, stretching from the West Virginia border to the Allegheny mountaintops. Two of the nation?s busiest mines sit in the district. President Obama in 2008 described the area as a place where people bitterly ?cling? to guns and religion. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, John McCain beat Obama in the district just four years after it went for John Kerry. ?People in this district are conservative,? Burns tells me. ?They?re pro-life, pro-gun, and for smaller government. They?re concerned about the debt and they love this country. I don?t really identify myself as a Republican but as a conservative, and that rings true with people I meet out on the trail.?

Before running for Congress, Burns, the father of two young sons, owned a pharmacy technology business and became a self-made millionaire. His only involvement with politics was ?complaining about it,? he says. Then, last spring, he decided to help organize a tea-party rally near his hometown in Washington County. ?I spoke there and got a great response, and was asked to speak at another one,? he recalls. ?I mentioned that I should maybe consider running for office and was highly encouraged to get out there and do it.?

In March of this year, following Murtha?s death, Burns was tapped as the GOP?s candidate for the special election. Some supporters of Bill Russell, Murtha?s last GOP opponent, grumbled about the state GOP?s selection process. Nevertheless, ?here I am, and I?m pretty close to being elected to Congress,? Burns says.

Burns believes his time as a small-business executive will be an important factor for voters. ?I understand first hand what it takes to create a business, what it means to meet a payroll,? he says. ?I understand the burden government places on young and growing businesses. That influences my positions. I understand that it is technology and the private sector that will help make health care more efficient. At my company, we built software that made the dispensing of medication safer and more accurate.?

?Some people, especially on other side, think government is responsible for creating jobs,? Burns continues. ?The government is not responsible for creating jobs. The best thing government can do is create an environment that?s attractive to business. For the most part, the government should get out of the way and let the private sector do what it does best: generate wealth and create jobs. We need to get away from government punishing job creators.?

To help run his campaign, Burns has enlisted some of the GOP?s top consultants -- people like John Brabender, a former senior aide to Rick Santorum; pollster Gene Ulm; and Mike DuHaime, who was a consultant for Chris Christie?s successful 2009 gubernatorial run in New Jersey and for Rudy Giuliani?s 2008 presidential campaign. Burns has also benefited from strong support from the national and state parties. Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Newt Gingrich have endorsed him. House GOP Leader John Boehner (Ohio) and National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) have held fundraisers for him in Washington. The NRCC has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race, with another $273,000 spent on TV advertisements alone.

In April, Sarah Palin gave Burns a surprise endorsement via Facebook. ?I didn?t even know that she was paying attention to this race,? he laughs. ?We didn?t get any word. But I?m appreciative. She has a lot of very passionate supporters who will hopefully help this campaign.? In many ways, she already has -- in the first 72 hours following Palin?s Facebook kiss, Burns raked in $80,000.

?I believe we have a chance to win an upset election that will reverberate through the country, much like the election of Scott Brown in January,? Gingrich said in his endorsement statement. Now Senator Brown has said he will stump for Burns himself.

Rob Gleason, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Committee, tells NRO that Burns has caught fire -- that he has become Pennsylvania?s ?own version of Scott Brown? thanks to his focus on jobs. ?These were Reagan Democrats,? Gleason he says, surveying PA 12. ?They?re open to a Republican who shares their values. With [Burns?s] experience in creating jobs, not just bringing them to Pennsylvania with federal dollars, he offers a real alternative to the Murtha model. For an area that?s been hit by high unemployment, that?s really important.?

Tea parties have also been crucial. At them, Burns says, ?I?ve met people from all walks of life -- coal miners, farmers, office workers, people in management, doctors. The common theme is that these are people who love their country and want to preserve their country for their children, black people, white people, everyone. These are people who love America, and it?s terrible to criticize them.? Make no bones about it, he adds, ?I?m absolutely a tea-party candidate.?

?I would not be surprised if the GOP wins this,? says Larry Ceisler, a former Democratic strategist and publisher of PoliticsPA.com. ?The 2000 redistricting really sealed the deal for the GOP here. Murtha drew a district which really only he could defend electorally. Jack Murtha represented the best and worst of what a member of Congress should be. He was able to use the best part to ward off recent challengers, but if Critz loses the seat, it is because voters will hold him accountable for what they consider the worst.?

Gleason says a win on May 18 is ?no slam dunk,? but he hopes the race could be a bellwether for his party?s chances in November, notably Tom Corbett?s gubernatorial campaign and Pat Toomey?s Senate run. ?We?re working like there?s no tomorrow,? he says.

?I originally thought Critz would win this by a few points,? confesses Chris Lillik, a conservative activist and editor of GrassrootsPA.com. ?Now it looks like Burns is going to shock the world and pull this thing off.?

One heckuva Hail Mary pass.

-- Robert Costa is the William F. Buckley Jr. Fellow at the National Review Institute.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on May 04, 2010 (boomark / email).