Indiana

My Predictions*

By Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

With two hours before the poll close, here’s how I think things are going to turn out tonight.  I put a an asterisk mark behind my title because I still think there is enough of a an x-factor out there that anything can still happen.  So with that said, here’ we go…

• U.S. Senate – Dan Coats by a nose, but don’t be surprised if Marlin Stutzman pulls a late upset.  He’s been gaining ground lately.
• 5th District – Toss up between Dan Burton and Luke Messer, however Mike Murphy with his TV ads and John McGoff with his ground game could be spoilers.  And don’t rule out those 5th District Democrats who may crossover to vote against Burton.
• 4th District – Todd Rokita.  Name ID and TV help.  He also has one of the architects of Mitch Daniels’ campaign victory working for him.
• 7th District Republican – Carlos May.  Look at Marvin Scott’s past records.
• Marion County Sheriff – Toss up in both parties.  John Layton and Bart McAtee have the money, but Mark Brown has a major undertow of African-American support and Dennis Fishburn has a lot of underground game.
• Marion County Prosecutor – Terry Curry.  The odds are just to much against Greg Bowes.  Mark  Massa has no opponent.
• Local School Referendum – Toss up.  If more people with kids come out they pass, old people, they lose.

Those are my predictions with a big giant caveat emptor.  I can and will say this, even if these are wrong, I will not be surprised at the outcomes, and have a logical explanation for why things turned out the way they did.

The polls close in two hours, three for parts of Indiana in the Central Time Zone.  We’ll have complete coverage tonight on-line at wxnt.com.

Full post as published by Indiana Barrister on May 04, 2010 (boomark / email).