Legal Commentary

Dems Who Voted Against Obama: How Will They Fare?

By Big Tent Democrat

A WSJ pundit posits that voting against the Obama Agenda will save some Democrats:

Troll through the voting rolls, and you'll find an exclusive club of three House Democrats running for re-election who voted against the more controversial pieces of the Obama agenda: the $862 billion stimulus, Mr. Obama's $3.5 trillion budget, cap and trade and, of course, ObamaCare. Troll through the polls today, and you'll find a near-exclusive club of three House Democrats who are beating every electoral expectation. Were history, incumbency and the economy the main factors this fall, Idaho's Walt Minnick, Alabama's Bobby Bright and Mississippi's Gene Taylor would be packing up. That they aren't is a resounding statement on a failed Obama vision.

First, you simply can not include Gene Taylor on this list where "history and incumbency" point to a GOP victory. Gene Taylor has held his district forever. He has voted against Dem Presidents (and even Dem speakers of the House) forever.But Minnick and Bright, from two decidedly GOP districts do present evidence that in heavily GOP districts, voting and talking like a Republican will be advantageous. But the list provided by the WSJ pundit is quite selective. There were many more Dems who voted Republican than those 3. Let's take, for example, the vote on the House health care bill (it passed 220-215.) The following Dems voted against it:

Adler, Altmire, Baird, Barrow, Boccieri, Boren, Boucher, Boyd, Bright, Chandler, Childress, Artur Davis, Edwards, Griffith (who switched parties and lost in a GOP primary), Herseth, Holden, Kissell, Kosmas, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Massa (who has since resigned), Matheson, McMahon, Melancon, Minnick, Murphy, Nye. Ross, Shuler, Skelton, Tanner, Taylor and Teague.

There are 220 Democrats who voted for it. Without knowing all the specifics, I am still pretty sure that the Dems who voted No are in greater political jeopardy than those who voted Yes in the aggregate. Not because of the vote itself. But because of the districts they represent, which are more Republican.

The reality is the health care bill is not going to decide a single race. So what of the energy bill vote? Basically the same names with the energy state Dems also voting No.

This election will not be decided on these votes. To coin a phrase, it's the economy stupid.

If the economy were better, less Democrats would be vulnerable. Of course each race is different. And in districts like Walt Minnick's and Bobby Bright's, it should be embarrassing for the Republicans that they do not have them locked up already.

Indeed, if President Obama and the Democrats had been bolder on economic policy, the economy would be in better shape now and less Democrats would be vulnerable. Democrats acting like Republicans in Republican districts is nothing new or novel.

This election is about the economy. And the economy sucks. And the ruling party will suffer for it. This is a dog bites man story. Nothing to see here.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on August 13, 2010 (boomark / email).