Indiana

House Party?

By Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

If  you are rooting for Indiana Republicans to take back the State House of Representatives, I’ve got some good news for you and some bad news for you.  First, the good news.  If the election were held today, you would win by a very comfortable margin.

I’ve been doing some analysis as of late and things potentially look better for the House GOP than I expected.   Generic polling shows Indiana House Republicans with a comfortable lead over their Democratic counterparts.  Mitch Daniels and Aiming Higher are raising buckets of money.   Evansville-area Democratic candidates are running against the Capitol Improvement Board instead of focusing on local issues.  The State Teachers Union has endorsed Mark Messmer, the Republican candidate in House District 63.    Overall, not a bad place to be.

Now here’s the bad news.  The election is not today, it’s 64  days from now and anything can happen.   Democrats privately say they are confident things are coming together, despite the national trends.  In addition, there 36 Libertarian House candidates on the ballot this year, the most in the last decade, which could split the vote in some places.

Despite those pitfalls, the political winds, for now, are at the backs of the Republicans for the Statehouse.  However, we’re in the Midwest and we all know the winds can change at a moments notice.  That’s why this stuff is so much fun to watch.  Stay tuned.

Full post as published by Indiana Barrister on August 29, 2010 (boomark / email).