Legal Commentary

DCCC Poll Has Garcia Way Ahead (Thanks to the Tea Party)

By Professor University of Miami School of Law

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has a new poll out that looks good for Joe Garcia. He's ahead by much more than the margin of error. The Garcia campaign sent this out:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today released a new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll that shows Joe Garcia leading Republican challenger David Rivera by 7 points.

In the initial head-to-head in the race for Florida?s 25th congressional district, Garcia leads Rivera 40 percent to 33 percent. Whig Party candidate Craig Porter and Tea Party Candidate Roly Arrojo each received 2 percent and 7 percent respectively. Conducted September 12-19, the poll surveyed 404 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Two caveats. Partisan polls tend to lean a bit in favor of the paymaster. And it's notable Garcia's lead is equal to the 7% garnered by the Tea Party candidate. It's possible that some of those voters will come home to the GOP by November. It's also possible that they won't. Or, that as people get unhappier with Rivera, that 7% for the Tea Party might even grow…

Minor note: is it smart for the campaign to refer to Rivera as his “Republican challenger”? Does sounding like an incumbent help this year?

Full post as published by Discourse.net on September 20, 2010 (boomark / email).