Legal Commentary

BCS Championship Preview

By Big Tent Democrat

First, let me disclose my bias - a Florida Gator fan, I am firmly convinced that not only is the SEC the best football conference year after year, but that it is not even very close. Soooo, I'm picking Auburn tonight right? No. I think that Oregon is going to win the game easily and that this is one of the best betting propositions in some time. Let's look at the numbers - Auburn is a 1.5 point favorite (since I decided on Oregon, I shopped for the best line and have Oregon (+3) (15 units)). My view is that Jeff Sagarin has the most accurate computer rating system. Under the Sagarin system, Oregon is 7 points better than Auburn. More . .

In addition to the computer numbers, my eyeball test tells me Auburn is simply not as good as Oregon. There were at least 3 games I watched this year where Auburn was not the best team on the field (first South Carolina game, Alabama game and Clemson game.) Auburn's defense is weak, especially in the secondary. In short, this is a weak SEC champion (in fact Alabama was the most talented team in the league and simply underperformed. Saban had his worst coaching performance ever.)

By contrast, Oregon is a very strong PAC 10 champion, probably the best team the PAC 10 has produced since the USC teams from 2003-2005. I've watched Oregon a number of times and they are very good on both sides of the ball - with speed and great interior line play.

Oregon is simply the better team, and not by a little bit.

Also note that Oregon's speed of play on offense (number of play per game) will further negate Auburn's few defensive strengths (its outstanding defensive line.) While Auburn's first defensive line rotation is as good as anybody's, there is a marked dropoff after that. More plays mean less snaps where Nick Fairly is on the field.

Of course, anything can happen in one game, but the odds are strongly in Oregon's favor imo. Here is an opposing view. I note for the record that to uphold the argument, the writer makes this outlandish statement:

[I]t will not be asking too much for Auburn's defense to contain Oregon's offense since Oregon's offense is fairly one-dimensional and will not be able to effectively attack Auburn's defense where it is weakest; namely, against the pass.

Auburn may win the game, but not because Auburn's defense "contained" Oregon's offense. The over/under on this game is 73.

I am speaking for me only in this post as Jeralyn may be making a big play on Auburn tonight for all I know. (probably not.)

Full post as published by TalkLeft on January 10, 2011 (boomark / email).