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Prior research analyzing county level data for the entire United States from 1977 to 2000, found annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5 and 2.3 percent for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in effect.  This study investigates a neglected causal connection between aggregate gun possession levels and crime rates--mortality rates among populations subgroups most likely to engage in criminal activity.  Utilizing data collected in the Department of Justice's National Crime Assessment Project and mortality data gathered in 15 randomly selected SMSAs, we establish a statistically significant relationship between gun possession levels and mortality among the population subgroup most likely to commit crimes--nonwhite males with marks of gang affiliation between the ages of 17 and 24.  Extrapolating these findings on a national basis leads to the conclusion that each additional gun introduced in high-crime subregions produces an additional 0.27 mortalities in the relevant population subgroup.  Utilizing crime propensity data reported by the NCAP, we project that this incapacitation effect will produce 3.2 fewer reported property-related crimes, 1.2 fewer violent crimes (excluding homicides), and 0.31 fewer homicides per additional gun.  These findings suggest that zoning ordinances designed to reduce gun sales in high-crime urban areas are counterproductive.

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