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Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators: Widespread Recession

By Anonymous

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty nine states are showing declining three month activity.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in 47 states in May, and was unchanged in 2 more states. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for May.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2009. In the past month, the indexes have increased in one state (North Dakota), decreased in 47, and were unchanged in the other two (South Dakota and Vermont), for a one-month diffusion index of -92. Over the past three months, the indexes have increased in one state (again, North Dakota) and decreased in the other 49 states, for a three-month diffusion index of -96.

The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

Almost all states showed declining activity in May. Still a very widespread recession ...

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on June 23, 2009 (boomark / email).