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Likelihood of Innocence: Quantifying reasonable doubt and acceptable collateral damage from false prosecutions

I thought I'd share with readers some interesting stuff I've been reading and thinking about lately from the blogosphere and elsewhere. The missus thinks that, if only for yall's benefit, I should split this up into three posts. She's right, but I've spent too much time editing the damn thing already so I'll just apologize in advance for the length and dive right into it: The Likelihood of Guilt and Statistical Probability Via Simple Justice and Eugene Volokh, I found this pair of posts from Steven Landsburg at The Big Questions both provocative and interesting. Go read them both before continuing with this post, since I'll refer to them but won't quote them extensively:Law School Admission TestReasonable DoubtsBasically Landsburg offers an example where a small but statistically significant sample (of black and red balls taken from an urn)  points to a particular outcome with a 98% probability of accuracy, arguing  that that level of certainty should be sufficient to secure a conviction "beyond a reasonable doubt...continue to full post

Full post as published by Grits for Breakfast on November 15, 2010 (boomark / email).