Federal Judiciary

A Look at Georgia?s GOP Gubernatorial Primary -- By: Jesse Naiman

Georgia Republicans will return to the polls tomorrow to choose a nominee for governor. This runoff election will conclude the race between two conservative candidates: the Sarah Palin–endorsed former Georgia secretary of state Karen Handel, and Newt Gingrich–backed former congressman Nathan Deal.

Polling has been limited, but an August 5 InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV survey of 514 likely Republican voters has the race at a 46–46 tie.

Attacks between Handel and Deal have been fierce. In an advertisement titled 'Solid,' Handel refers to Deal as 'a corrupt relic of Washington, D.C.' Prior to resigning from Congress for his gubernatorial bid, Deal was under investigation by the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) over allegations that he used his office in an effort to 'preserve a state vehicle inspection program that had generated significant personal benefit for him and a business partner,' according to an OCE report.

#ad#Handel has sought to portray herself as a reformer and a political outsider. 'Handel brings the message of an outsider. She has plans for ethics reform and a plan for job creation,' says her spokesman Dan McLagan. He adds, 'She is not a career legislator that brings Washington solutions for Georgia problems.'

The Deal campaign sharply repudiates Handel's allegations. 'She makes it seem as though every elected official in Georgia should be in prison,' says Brian Robinson, a Deal spokesman. 'She is a ‘Janie Come-Lately' when it comes to this issue [of ethics reform].' Robinson adds that Deal is not the target of a federal investigation.

Robinson also characterizes Handel as a political opportunist who is unqualified to become governor. 'She has run the Seinfeld campaign, a campaign about nothing.' He dismisses Sarah Palin's endorsement: 'All [Handel] has is a handful of mud. Karen Handel is not a momma grizzly. She's a pander bear.'

Deal's strategy appears to be to paint himself as the conservative candidate in the race and try and attract those who voted for Eric Johnson and John Oxendine, the candidates who finished third and fourth, respectively. Winning these voters could be crucial for willing the runoff. 'The candidates who finished third and fourth took the bulk of the votes in South Georgia. An endorsement from one or both of them would be helpful,' says University of Georgia political-science professor Charles Bullock. Oxendine and Johnson are yet to endorse a candidate in the runoff.

#page#
Robinson believes that Oxendine and Johnson voters will support Deal. 'Internal polling shows Oxendine voters backing us and some Johnson voters starting to support us too,' Robinson says. According to the campaign, Deal has the endorsement of 24 of 34 GOP state senators and 31 GOP state representatives.

Some political observers think this strategy will backfire, however. Whit Ayres -- founder of public-opinion firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates, and someone who has worked extensively in southern politics -- says these endorsements are worthless. 'Karen Handel has run as an outsider who will clean up state government. Having the very people in power endorsing Deal will only help her campaign,' he says. He has taken on Handel as a client, and expresses no doubt who will win: 'Karen Handel will win because she is clean as a whistle, has an ethical record, and Nathan Deal is ethically challenged.'

#ad#The effect that this primary will have on the general election remains to be seen. A Rasmussen Reports poll released two days after the primary showed Deal with a 49–43 lead over Democratic nominee and former governor Roy Barnes, and Handel with a statistically insignificant 45–44 lead over Barnes. 'This is a runoff in which the GOP candidates are tearing each other up. This could benefit Roy Barnes,' says Merle Black of Emory University's political-science department.

But some, such as Bullock, believe the Republican is still likely to win. 'I expect that Georgia's next governor will be a Republican,' Bullock says. 'This is a red state. It has not elected a Democrat to a statewide open position since 1998.'

Bullock also believes that turnout may favor the Republican candidate. He notes that while Republicans had a 44–32 advantage in 2006, the Democrats had a 38–35 margin in the 2008 election, which saw Obama's victory. Yet it evaporated just one month later, in the December U.S. Senate runoff between Republican Saxby Chambliss and unsuccessful challenger Jim Martin. 'Having Mike Thurmond [the challenger to GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson] at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2010 will not have the drawing power that Obama had,' Bullock says.

— Jesse Naiman, a Collegiate Network intern at National Review, is editor-in-chief of The Observer at Boston College.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on August 09, 2010 (boomark / email).