Federal Judiciary

Senatorial Worries in Virginia -- By: Jim Geraghty

If your state absolutely must be represented by a pair of Democratic senators, you could do a lot worse than Jim Webb and Mark Warner.

Warner was a popular governor earlier this decade and has displayed a knack for avoiding controversial stances. Webb, a former Reagan administration official, has demonstrated a willingness to buck his party from time to time, voting against immigration-reform proposals in 2007 and saying he opposes the cap-and-trade legislation currently before the Senate.

Still, on one of the two biggest pieces of legislation before Congress this year, the Democrats? health-care-reform efforts, there are disturbing signs that the pair are thinking of going along with their more liberal brethren.

Both voted for cloture two weekends ago, a key step in advancing the legislation. Neither is typically mentioned as a worrisome vote for Democrats, and while both emphasize their concerns about controlling costs and quality of care, the conventional wisdom is that they?ll fall in line on key amendments and the final vote.

It?s revealing that liberals aren?t that worried about Warner, despite his own claims that his vote shouldn?t be taken for granted. ?Saturday?s vote was only a starting point that allows us to continue working to include these amendments in the final legislation,? Warner said in a statement the day of the cloture vote. ?I will only support a final bill if I am convinced it will lower the deficit, drive down health-care costs over the long term, and improve the value and quality of the health care Virginians receive.?

The Harrisonburg, Va., Daily News-Record whacked around Webb for his relative quiet about the vote, suggesting he?s not all that interested in calling attention to the subject:

Go to Sen. Jim Webb?s legislative ?home page? and you?d never know the most momentous debate in recent political history is taking place. There?s not a mention of health care ?reform.? And the senator?s press office last week informed our sister paper, The Winchester Star, that he opted not to issue a statement on why he voted as he did on the recent cloture vote.

Both senators? offices stated that they received more calls the day of the vote than they usually receive in a week, and protests were held outside their district offices.

Earlier this year, both senators made comments indicating they had doubts about the way the legislation was shaping up. In mid-summer, Webb acknowledged some legitimate fears in a line that would generate some applause at your nearest Tea Party rally: ?There?s a lot of worry out there -- a legitimate worry out there -- that the government is going to stuff something down their throat in terms of the nature of the care they?re going to receive.? He complained Congress was ?rushing? and suggested he wanted Congressional leaders to ?open it up. Have some hearings. Let people get their different viewpoints out in a very public way.?

Webb did not hold any town-hall meetings during the August recess, saying he was hearing plenty from his constituents already. Warner did hold a town hall in Fredericksburg, and apparently ran into trouble when he appeared to argue that if you like Medicare, you like nationalized health care.

More recently Warner said, ?I wish the president would have started the debate by explaining to the American people that our current health care system is not financially sustainable, for even another decade.#...#Driving down health care costs should have been the focus of the debate.?

Webb says he?s happy that the text of the legislation is finally posted on the web for the public to review, and that he and his staff are analyzing it. He seems strangely tight-lipped about what he thinks of the legislation so far; as of Thursday, the top items on his Senate website were the new version of the G.I. bill, his National Criminal Justice Commission Act, his Commission on Wartime Contracting, his trip to Burma, and expanding adult education.

Of all the states that embraced Barack Obama in 2008, no territory?s voters have changed their minds as quickly and drastically as Virginia?s. From January to June, most pollsters found Obama?s approval rating in the mid-50s or low-60s. But the last four polls conducted in the state have shown different. Obama?s job approval/disapproval splits was 45/46 in Roanoke College?s poll, 49/51 in Rasmussen?s, 41/52 in Public Policy Polling?s (PPP), and an astonishing 37/60 in SurveyUSA?s.

The public?s souring mood is hitting home for these senators. In summer, Webb?s approval/disapproval numbers were healthy: 49/38 in Survey USA, 46/42 in PPP, and 51/29 in the Washington Post. The last two statewide polls, SurveyUSA and PPP, have shown his approval dwindling at 45/49 and 42/40 respectively. Warner?s numbers are better, but show a similar slump: from 62/30 in Survey USA, 56/32 in PPP, and 67/23 in the Washington Post to 52/43 in Survey USA and 53/38 in PPP.

Perhaps an even clearer indicator of Virginia opinion was how the health-care legislation played in the state governor?s race this year. Republican Bob McDonnell clearly opposed the legislation, declaring in an October 22 interview: ?I think there has been some disappointment, certainly from Virginians, with the many bills that have come out of the United States Congress that are 1,000 pages-plus that don?t appear to be fully read or comprehended prior to the vote. And I know our voters are telling us that they are concerned, while they think it is legitimate to address the cost and access issues in health care, that turning over the greatest medical-care system in the world to the federal government is probably not a good idea.#...#I think people are by and large happy with the providers that they have got now. They treasure that doctor-patient relationship. And turning over this -- the best doctors, the best hospitals, the best pharmaceutical research and development system -- to the federal government through co-ops or a public option, is [an idea] that I don?t hear Virginians very excited about.?

If this issue were the game-changer that liberal bloggers insist and the Obama administration hopes it is, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds could have ridden it to victory, or at least used it to narrow the margin in the final weeks. Instead, the issue and in particular the public option left him tongue-tied -- admittedly, not the highest bar to clear -- and Deeds concluded the public option wasn?t necessary and said he might have the state opt out of it. McDonnell crushed Deeds 59 percent to 41 percent, receiving the highest percentage of the vote for any candidate for governor since 1961.

The Virginia exit polls demonstrated that health care was distinctly a second-tier voter concern behind the economy. The folks who showed up to vote weren?t all that impressed with Obama and his efforts, with 48 percent approving of the job he was doing, 51 percent disapproving. Perhaps most strikingly, among the 24 percent of voters who said health care was their top concern, Deeds barely won, 51 percent to 49 percent.

Neither senator has to sweat being voted out of office for a while; Webb isn?t up for reelection until 2012, and Warner won?t face the voters again until 2014. But if they ultimately have a hand in passing a gargantuan health-care bill that limits coverage and costs a ton, they?ll raise the question of how long Virginians carry a grudge.

-- Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on December 04, 2009 (boomark / email).