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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 6

By Andis Kaulins

The odds used below are those posted at Yahoo Sports on Monday, September 29, 2008. The unique system used for game prognostications is SPRS, which uses primarily our own derived NAYPPA system (based on yards per play stats from cfbstats.com) plus the Massey Ratings strength of schedule (SoS) for making college football predictions, although we handle SoS differently here than for a full season. Thus far this year, for Division I-A FBS football, the median (of 120 teams) net yards per play gained on offense is 5.5 whereas the median net yards per play allowed on defense is 5.3. In the year 2007 those medians were 5.4 and 5.3 respectively for the full season. Unless otherwise noted, the stats in parentheses give the net average yards per play gained on offense and net average yards per play allowed on defense thus far this football season. Each point of SPRS rating advantage = 9 points on the scoreboard (see the 2007 final rankings). We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Florida Atlantic (5.5, 5.9, SoS=22) at Middle Tennessee State (4.8, 5.5, SoS=50)
We call the game for Middle Tennessee State: 28-27
Result: Middle Tennessee won 14-13 on a 32-yard TD pass by Joe Craddock to Malcolm Beyah as time expired, followed by the extra point by kicker Alan Gendreau . The Owls averaged 5.3 net yards per play to 5.0 for the Blue Raiders, so that the win was primarily due to the home field advantage.
This week, we are 1-0 in predicting winners and 0-0 against the spread (the odds line).

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Boise State (7.0, 4.4, SoS=63) is favored at home by 21 1/2 points over Louisiana Tech (4.7, 5.9, SoS=75).
We call the game for the Broncos: 47-9.
Result:

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Memphis (5.9, 6.1, SoS=96) is favored on the road by 5 points over UAB (5.8, 7.0, SoS=127).
We call the game for Memphis: 35-24.
Result:

South Florida (6.1, 4.0, SoS=89) is favored at home by 13 1/2 points over Pittsburgh (4.9, 4.8, SoS=49).
We call the game for the Bulls: 26-14.
Result:

Utah (5.8, 4.0, SoS=35) is favored at home by 10 1/2 points over Oregon State (5.3, 5.4, SoS=14).
We call the game for Utah: 24-23.
Result:

Friday, October 3, 2008

Brigham Young (6.5, 4.7, SoS=107) is favored on the road by 28 1/2 points over Utah State (5.2, 5.9, SoS=13).
We call the game for BYU: 48-0.
Result:

Cincinnati (6.2, 5.2, SoS=80) is favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over Marshall (5.3, 5.7, SoS=85).
We call the game for Cincinnati: 30-20.
Result:

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Air Force (5.6, 5.7, SoS=52) is favored at home by 6 points over Navy (6.7, 5.8, SoS=33).
We call the game for Navy: 35-24.
Result:

Akron (4.7, 5.0, SoS=59) is favored on the road by 4 points over Kent State (5.6, 6.2, SoS=108).
We call the game for Akron: 28-21.
Result:

Alabama (5.9, 4.1, SoS=25) is favored at home by 16 1/2 points over Kentucky (4.9, 3.9, SoS=129).
We call the game for Alabama: 17-7.
Result:

Alcorn State at New Mexico State
We call the game for New Mexico State: 38-17
Result:

Arizona (5.9, 3.8, SoS=163) is favored at home by 19 points over Washington (4.4, 7.5, SoS=1).
We call the game for Arizona: 24-17.
Result:

Auburn (4.7, 3.8, SoS=100) is favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over Vanderbilt (4.9, 5.3, SoS=24).
We call the game for Auburn: 17-13.
Result:

Ball State (7.1, 5.6, SoS=110) is favored on the road by 7 points over Toledo (5.4, 5.3, SoS=121).
We call the game for Ball State: 38-26.
Result:

Boston College (4.9, 4.1, SoS=145) is favored on the road by 8 points over North Carolina State (4.3, 5.9, SoS=16).
We call the game for Boston College: 28-21
Result:

Bowling Green (4.6, 5.1, SoS=4) is favored at home by 21 points over Eastern Michigan (5.4, 5.8, SoS=136).
We call the game for Bowling Green: 31-14
Result:

California (6.6, 4.2, SoS=40) is favored at home by 9 1/2 points over Arizona State (6.3, 4.8, SoS=11).
We call the game for Cal: 40-32
Result:

Colorado State (5.1, 5.9, SoS=58) is favored at home by 1 point over UNLV (5.6, 6.3, SoS=40).
We call the game for Colorado State: 36-34
Result:

Florida (5.9, 4.0, SoS=109) is favored on the road by 22 points over Arkansas (5.3, 5.5, SoS=30).
We call the game for Florida: 34-28
Result:

Florida International (3.4, 5.0, SoS=21) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over North Texas (4.7, 7.0, SoS=9).
We call the game for Florida International: 35-28
Result:

Fresno State (6.3, 5.8, SoS=118) is favored at home by 22 points over Hawaii (5.0, 4.9, SoS=71).
We call the game for Fresno State: 35-27
Result:

Georgia Tech (6.8, 4.1, SoS=45) is favored at home by 14 points over Duke (4.8, 5.1, SoS=5).
We call the game for Georgia Tech: 33-17
Result:

Kansas (5.9, 5.0, SoS=47) is favored on the road by 13 points over Iowa State (5.4, 5.9, SoS=76).
We call the game for Kansas: 39-23
Result:

Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL) (6.4, 6.3, SoS=103) is favored on the road by 1 point over Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) (4.9, 6.1, SoS=95).
We call the game for ULL: 44-34
Result:

Maryland (6.0, 5.3, SoS=93) is favored on the road by 14 points over Virginia (3.9, 5.5, SoS=2).
We call the game for Maryland: 27-18
Result:

Miami (FL) (5.1, 4.8, SoS=104) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over Florida State (6.4, 3.6, SoS=61).
We call the game for Florida State: 37-14
Result:

Miami (OH) (4.6, 5.6, SoS=19) is favored at home by 7 points over Temple (4.3, 5.3, SoS=55).
We call the game for Miami of Ohio: 17-14
Result:

Michigan (4.5, 4.3, SoS=3) is favored at home by 2 points over Illinois (6.1, 5.7, SoS=56).
We call the game for Michigan: 24-21
Result:

Michigan State (5.5, 5.5, SoS=65) is favored at home by 8 points over Iowa (6.1, 4.3, SoS=31).
We call the game for Iowa: 31-21
Result:

Minnesota (5.7, 5.5, SoS=77) is favored at home by 7 1/2 points over Indiana (6.1, 5.3, SoS=84).
We call the game for Minnesota: 32-31
Result:

Mississippi (6.3, 4.7, SoS=38) is favored at home by 2 1/2 points over South Carolina (4.9, 4.0, SoS=26).
We call the game for Mississippi: 31-23
Result:

Missouri (8.2, 4.8, SoS=87) is favored on the road by 10 points over Nebraska (6.9, 5.0, SoS=32).
We call the game for Nebraska: 38-35
Result:

Nevada (6.5, 6.4, SoS=8) is favored on the road by 24 1/2 points over Idaho (4.8, 6.8, SoS=133).
We call the game for Nevada: 42-24
Result:

New Mexico (4.6, 5.7, SoS=67) is favored at home by 11 points over Wyoming (4.2, 4.9, SoS=57).
We call the game for New Mexico: 20-19
Result:

North Carolina (5.9, 4.8, SoS=82) is favored at home by 7 points over Connecticut (5.6, 5.1, SoS=78).
We call the game for North Carolina: 35-27
Result:

Notre Dame (5.1, 5.4, SoS=37) is favored at home by 7 1/2 points over Stanford (5.2, 5.1, SoS=34).
We call the game for Stanford: 30-28
Result:

Ohio State (5.2, 4.3, SoS=73) is favored on the road by 2 1/2 points over Wisconsin (5.8, 4.7, SoS=43).
We call the game for Wisconsin: 24-17
Result:

Oklahoma (6.9, 3.7, SoS=60) is favored on the road by 27 points over Baylor (6.7, 4.2, SoS=28).
We call the game for Oklahoma: 38-17
Result:

Oklahoma State (7.8, 4.6, SoS=115) is favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Texas A&M (4.9, 5.3, SoS=144).
We call the game for Oklahoma State: 52-14
Result:

Penn State (7.2, 3.9, SoS=99) is favored on the road by 12 points over Purdue (5.7, 5.4, SoS=64).
We call the game for Penn State: 38-17
Result:

Southern Miss (5.5, 5.9, SoS=91) is favored at home by 8 points over UTEP (5.2, 6.0, SoS=72).
We call the game for Southern Miss: 33-28
Result:

TCU (5.1, 4.1, SoS=68) is favored at home by 24 1/2 points over San Diego State (5.6, 5.6, SoS=74).
We call the game for TCU: 31-19
Result:

Tennessee (5.1, 4.0, SoS=106) is favored at home by 16 points over Northern Illinois (6.2, 4.6, SoS=153).
We call the game for Tennessee: 28-17
Result:

Texas (6.8, 4.6, SoS=70) is favored on the road by 14 points over Colorado (4.7, 4.9, SoS=48).
We call the game for Texas: 38-21
Result:

Texas Tech (7.6, 4.8, SoS=81) is favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over Kansas State (6.5, 5.0, SoS=135).
We call the game for Texas Tech: 44-31
Result:

Tulane (5.2, 4.6, SoS=42) is favored at home by 19 points over Army (3.9, 5.6, SoS=122).
We call the game for Tulane: 38-7
Result:

Tulsa (8.6, 5.8, SoS=162) is favored at home by 14 points over Rice (5.8, 6.5, SoS=39).
We call the game for Tulsa: 55-32
Result:

UCF (4.1, 5.3, SoS=88) is favored at home by 14 points over Southern Methodist (5.5, 6.8, SoS=36).
We call the game for SMU: 31-30
Result:

UCLA (4.5, 5.6, SoS=66) is favored at home by 16 1/2 points over Washington State (4.4, 6.7, SoS=46).
We call the game for UCLA: 28-16
Result:

USC (6.4, 3.8, SoS=12) is favored at home by 17 points over Oregon (6.5, 4.3, SoS=54).
We call the game for USC: 38-28
Result:

Virginia Tech (4.7, 5.6, SoS=6) is favored at home by 28 points over Western Kentucky (4.3, 5.6, SoS=98).
We call the game for Virginia Tech: 34-21
Result:

West Virginia (5.9, 4.4, SoS=23) is favored at home by 14 points over Rutgers (5.4, 5.4, SoS=94).
We call the game for West Virginia: 37-14
Result:

Western Michigan (6.1, 5.3, SoS=126) is favored at home by 4 points over Ohio (5.5, 4.9, SoS=62).
We call the game for Western Michigan: 26-24
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 29, 2008 (boomark / email).