Legal Commentary

Electoral Map Swing State Update

By Jeralyn

William Arnone, long-time Democratic party activist and the author of the key state series I've quoted many times, has just prepared an update to his preliminary electoral vote preview and again graciously agreed to let me publish it.

His new electoral map analysis of who would win if the election were held today is here. Key findings are below:

The updated assessment shows that the Republican ticket of McCain-Palin would win 29 states with 282 electoral votes and the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden would win 22 states including the District of Columbia) with 256 electoral votes.

This updated assessment represents a shift of one state (Colorado) and 9 electoral votes from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket since the August assessment. A detailed analysis of the shift in Colorado is included in the assessment.

In addition to Colorado shifting from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden, eight states have shifted in the possibility of the result changing between now and November. Of these states, five (Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina) have shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “Low.” One state (Minnesota) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “Moderate” to “High.” One state (Washington) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “Low” to “Moderate.” One state (Florida) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “High.”

Of the total of nine states whose assessments have shifted since August, seven (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Washington) have shifted in the direction of the Republican ticket, while two (Colorado and Florida) have shifted in the direction of the Democratic ticket.

Of those states with “High” possibilities of changing between now and November, three (Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, with a total of 40 electoral votes) might move to McCain-Palin, while four (Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio, with a total of 69 electoral votes) might move to Obama-Biden. If all of these states do shift, then the result would be 285 electoral votes for Obama-Biden and 253 electoral votes for McCain-Palin.

Starting on page 16, the report has updates on key swing voter groups the Democrats need to win: Older voters (particularly women), Hispanic/Latino voters and Catholic voters.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on September 30, 2008 (boomark / email).