Legal Commentary

Gallup: Americans Favor Investigations Of Bush Administration

By Big Tent Democrat

In a way, this Gallup poll result is stunning:

While no more than 41% of Americans favor a criminal investigation into any of the matters, at least 6 in 10 say there should be either a criminal investigation or an independent probe into all three [torture, DOJ firings and politicization and warrantless wiretapping.] This includes 62% who favor some type of investigation into the possible use of torture when interrogating terrorism suspects, 63% who do so with respect to the possible use of telephone wiretaps without obtaining a warrant, and 71% who support investigating possible attempts to use the Justice Department for political purposes.

(Emphasis supplied.) But to be honest, what it really is is a lesson in how poll results are so dependent on the question asked. I'll explain on the flip.

What does Gallup do here in this question that leads to this result? It is simple - it provides 3 alternatives instead of the usual 2. Now this very well may be the fairest way to present this question. It certainly presents the 3 alternatives being discussed today (criminal investigations, truth commissions, do nothing.)

My point is not to denigrate Gallup's question - I think it is well designed. It is to point out that if instead the question had been presented, for example, as between a generic "investigate" vs. "do nothing," the results would have been around 55-58% for "investigating." Indeed, I betcha Rasmussen will come out with a poll on this that will have it closer to 50% (I predict Ras will make it a binary choice, will skew even the binary choice question, and will screen for "likely voters" using its tightest possible screen in order to make the number lower. Ras is after all a GOP hack, especially on issue polling.)

But back to the subject of the poll - investigations of the Bush Administration. Certainly this poll is powerful ammunition for someone like Senator Leahy in his push for a "Truth" Commission. I think it is also a warning for the Obama Administration - any Bush-like moves by it, such as its embrace of the Bush expansive view of the state secrets doctrine will damage the Obama Administration. If in fact, as I suspect, the motives are political for its stance, then it need to rethink its position on these subjects. I think they are misreading the politics. Of course on the substance, they are dead wrong, but I think it is important to also point out they are wrong on the politics.

The Obama Administration can not take its cues from the Ruth Marcuses, Stuart Taylors and other Beltway Gasbags. By now, the Obama Administration should be aware that the Beltway is completely out of touch with the country. Playing to Broder is a losing move politically.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 12, 2009 (boomark / email).