Legal Commentary

Can Obama Win the Red States?

By Jeralyn

The Washington Post examines Barack Obama's prospects in November of winning the red states.

While Obama has shown an ability to reshape voting patterns, his record in the primaries suggests that he still has a ways to go in making significant inroads in Republican states.

The red states where he has won have tended to be in the Deep South, where victories were based on overwhelming support from African Americans, or in mostly white states in the Midwest and West, where he relied on a core of ardent backers to carry him in caucuses, which favor candidates with enthusiastic supporters. He has not fared as well in areas that fall in between, with populations that are racially diverse but lack a black population large enough to boost Obama to victory.

Tennessee is an example of the possible limits to Obama's broader appeal:

McWherter, the former Tennessee governor, said the results in his state clearly showed the limits of Obama's appeal. Obama won the big cities, where Democrats are mostly African American. He also won Williamson County, an affluent Nashville suburb that has voted heavily Republican in recent years, suggesting that Obama might pick up crossover support from wealthy Southerners in the fall.

But, McWherter noted, Obama lost the rest of the state.

I think it's too early to say how Obama would do in November. Personally, I think his novelty will wear off and people will start looking for substance. If he's the nominee, I hope they find it.

Update: Obama does have some Republican supporters.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 23, 2008 (boomark / email).