Legal Commentary

The Polls - 11/3

By Big Tent Democrat

One day to go. In January, the polling for the New Hampshire primary had Obama leading by an average of 8.3 points. Sounds scary right? Let's look at those numbers - Obama was predicted to get 38%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%, Richardson 6% and 8% undecided. The results? Obama got 37%, Edwards got 17%, Richardson got 5%. So far so good for the polls. But Clinton got 39%. She got the undecided voters.

What does this tell us about tomorrow? It tells me Obama is definitely going to win the popular vote. Why? Because even if McCain were to get every undecided voter (which he is not), Obama is over 50 in almost every poll. USA Today/Gallup has Obama at 53. ABC/WaPo has Obama at 53. NBC/WSJ has Obama at 51. Ras has Obama at 51. CNN has Obama at 53. Pew has Obama at 52. CBS has Obama at 54.

I stick by my prediction -- Obama by 6, 52.5 - 46.5. I predict he wins FL, OH, VA, CO, NV, NM and of course PA. I predict 325+ EVs. I predict 8 Senate pickups (AK, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC, MN and OR) and a runoff in GA. I predict Dem Gary Trauner wins Dick Cheney's old Congressional seat in Wyoming.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 03, 2008 (boomark / email).