Legal Commentary

The Polls - 9/16

By Big Tent Democrat

The Daily Kos/R2000 poll (8/13-15) has Obama up 48-44, up 1 from yesterday. I won't be around until this afternoon to provide you the other tracker results. UPDATE - Ras ticks towards Obama, McCain's lead sliced to 1, 48-47. Hotline shows a big move towards Obama, 46-42, from a 1 point lead a day earlier. Gallup ticks towards Obama, McCain lead cut to 1, 47-36.

The internals of this poll seem quite plausible - McCain by 20 among whites, Obama up 94-4 among A-As and leading by 2-1 among Latinos. McCain leads among men by 4 and Obama leads among women by 12. Turnout models are determinative. Demography is, as always, political destiny.

A final note, on the legitimacy of the DKos/R2000 poll - R2000 is a legitimate and respectable pollster. It seems to have a slight Dem house effect. But those of you voicing the idea that Kos would fiddle with polls are being just plain stupid. I would stake my own reputation on Markos' integrity. I disagree with him a lot. But he would never ever fudge the numbers.

This is a polling Open Thread. Just about polls please.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on September 16, 2008 (boomark / email).