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Reporting Facts, Not Opinions

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I think most readers of Talk Left know that it is my opinion that because Florida and Michigan will not have a revote, Hillary Clinton's chances to win the nomination are slim at best. The key point here is it is my opinion, not a fact. And it does not become a fact because 3 other bloggers, Politico and NBC have the same opinion. You know what it is? Conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is usually right. Sometimes it is not. It is not a fact. It is an opinion. Yesterday I wrote:

[H]ere's the rub - it is just [Politico reporter Ben] Smith's analysis. It is frankly absurd to hear people, like NBC and the Left blogs, say Clinton should drop out because WE think she can not catch up. Who are we to decide what the voters will do? The voters get to decide. Not the pundits. Not NBC. Not the Left blogs.

But contempt for the voters, of Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and beyond is the new watchword for Obama supporters - from NBC on down. It is quite unseemly imo.

In a much noted piece, the now "loved in the Left blogs" Jim van den Hei and John Harris (hilarious how much respect they garnered from this one piece in some circles) now have the NEW math on the Democratic nomination fight:

[L]et’s assume a best-case scenario for Clinton, one where she wins every remaining contest with 60 percent of the vote (an unlikely outcome since she has hit that level in only three states so far — her home state of New York, Rhode Island and Arkansas).

Even then, she would still be behind Obama in delegates.

(Emphasis supplied.) Let's assume van den Hei and Harris are in fact providing Hillary's "best case scenario[,]" which is "unlikely." (Pennsylvania and West Virginia polling certainly provide Clinton some solace on this score). That means that even in THEIR opinion, there is an unlikely scenario in which Clinton wins. And they have to admit it:

Harold Ickes, an icon of the Democratic Party who is Clinton’s chief delegate strategist, points out that every previous forecast about this race has been faulty.

Asked about the Obama campaign’s contention that it’s mathematically impossible for Clinton to win, Ickes replied: “They can’t count. At the end of it, even by the Obama campaign’s prediction, neither candidate will have enough delegates to be nominated.”

This is true, as a matter of math.

(Emphasis supplied.) Here is the problem - Obama has not finished Clinton off and it does not look like he will in Pennsylvania. Obama successfully blocked revotes in Florida and Michigan effectively disenfranchising the voters of Michigan and Florida (yes not a word of concern about this expressed by the Obama bloggers or the Obama television network - no Special Comments scheduled.) And as much as Keith Olbermann and Politico and the Left Obama blogs want Clinton to go away (heck I do too) - Obama has to finish this contest off.

WIN Pennsylvania and the race is over.

WIN Kentucky or West Virginia and the race is over.

Heck, win Indiana and the race is probably over.

Obama has the most favorable playing field for the nomination (as for the general election, that is another story) - he excluded Florida and Michigan. (Clinton bungled the pr on that issue in my opinion.) His path is easier now. But let's let him walk it please. Denying the voters their say is the new watchword for Obama supporters I know, but must all parts of the Media also insist upon it?

Update (TL): Comments now closed.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 22, 2008 (boomark / email).